Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:35:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x118a…d493 world 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 523d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate38%14W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$4
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% $0
world 32% −$5
other 16% −$1
politics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -27.7% -34.6% 50% 0% -31.3%
≤30d 17 -2.8% -12.1% 47% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 26 -5.7% -14.7% 35% 0% -9.8%
all 37 -10.0% -18.6% 38% 5% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 5% -10.0%
10% -26.4% 5% -18.6%
15% -33.5% 3% -26.5%
20% -40.0% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

523d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses14 / 23
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage523d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 91¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $14 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $11 −$6 -57%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $72 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $43 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $49 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $130 +$2 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $89 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 01 $3 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $98 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $74 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $43 +$3 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $68 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 23 $11 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $80 −$5 -7%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 21 $15 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $37 +$3 +8%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 19 $22 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $62 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $43 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $24 $0 +1%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 27 $251 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $664 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $221 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $221 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $221 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 23 $3 $0 +0%
Hurricanes vs. Red Wings Mar 03 $4 $0 +0%
Incarnate Word vs. Northwestern State Mar 02 $4 $0 +0%
Iowa vs. Illinois Feb 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will Billy Donovan make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Feb 24 $3 +$1 +26%
Will there be 400-500k rides on the DC metro on Jan 20? Feb 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump second inauguration gets more viewers than first? Feb 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Jan 24 $2 +$1 +48%
Will Jeremiah Smith score a TD AND Quinn Ewers throws one or more INT? Jan 11 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $43 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $4 10h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $11 10h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $3 13h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $12 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $11 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $47 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $47 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $43 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 54¢ $1 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 54¢ $43 9d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $4 9d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $39 10d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $28 10d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $15 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $14 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $14 10d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $7 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $18 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $25 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $34 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $9 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $44 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.98 · official $42.77 (match) · 159 history records