Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:12:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
11 0x118c…ae45 other 107 markets active 0h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$400 (+23%) realized +$593 · open −$193
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%29W / 67L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$330now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$155
7 days+$367
14 days+$367
30 days+$367
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$14
other 43% +$232
crypto 9% −$35
economics 0% −$5
world 0% −$3
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 +13.4% +2.6% 30% 30% +17.6%
≤30d 93 +13.4% +2.6% 30% 30% +17.6%
≤90d 93 +13.4% +2.6% 30% 30% +17.6%
all 96 +12.6% +1.9% 30% 30% +17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.9% 30% +17.2%
10% -7.9% 29% +6.0%
15% -16.8% 29% -4.2%
20% -24.9% 29% -13.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$11 · ×3.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$330
Realized+$593
Unrealized−$193
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses29 / 67
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions11
Markets (closed)96 / 107
History coverage153d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 29¢ 28¢ $149 $146 −$3 (-2%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Over 16¢ 16¢ $55 $53 −$2 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+3%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Yes 21¢ 14¢ $45 $31 −$14 (-31%)
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $28 $26 −$2 (-6%)
Alphonso Davies: 1+ goals Yes 11¢ 14¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+23%)
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Yes 10¢ 3¢ $30 $9 −$21 (-70%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 24¢ 9¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-63%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $66 $1 −$65 (-98%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-99%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Kevin Yakob: 1+ goals Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Edin Džeko: 1+ goals Jun 18 $56 −$56 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Declan Rice: 1+ goals Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Nuno Mendes: 1+ goals Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals Jun 18 $51 +$261 +510%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$40 +388%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $41 −$12 -28%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$49 +474%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $26 +$106 +414%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $26 +$79 +307%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $5 +$17 +327%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $20 +$42 +207%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 +$9 +83%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $15 +$14 +92%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $20 +$46 +226%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$44 +425%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 −$7 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$25 +250%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 16 $21 +$146 +712%
Egypt to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 15 $10 +$24 +234%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $25 +$25 +97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 +$65 +212%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 16¢ $56 4m
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 9¢ $29 10m
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 21¢ $46 27m
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 39m
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $68 57m
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 9¢ $62 1h
Alphonso Davies: 1+ goals BUY Yes 11¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 29¢ $152 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 29¢ $41 2h
Edin Džeko: 1+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $56 3h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $51 3h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 3h
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 5h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $36 5h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 17h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists BUY Yes 10¢ $10 25h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 25h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 39¢ $20 26h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 24¢ $29 26h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $41 30h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $10 30h
Declan Rice: 1+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $10 30h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 30h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 14¢ $31 30h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $20 30h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 29¢ $20 30h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $5 38h
Nuno Mendes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $10 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $330.38 · official $330.58 (match) · 238 history records