Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:08:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x1195…e17f crypto 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
Total PnL −$447 (-14%) realized −$597 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate41%26W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$580
7 days−$564
14 days−$564
30 days−$564
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$605
weather 12% −$4
sports 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -19.7% -27.3% 38% 30% -27.3%
≤30d 56 -19.7% -27.3% 38% 30% -27.3%
≤90d 64 -16.5% -24.5% 41% 34% -27.1%
all 64 -16.5% -24.5% 41% 34% -27.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.5% 34% -27.1%
10% -31.7% 30% -34.1%
15% -38.3% 25% -40.5%
20% -44.3% 17% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -64% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$28 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$597
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses26 / 38
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)64 / 68
History coverage107d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $11 $2 −$10 (-83%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-86%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 59¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $73 −$70 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $107 +$13 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 10? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 10? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 10? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$21 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $52 −$52 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $63 −$63 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 8AM ET Jun 13 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8AM ET Jun 13 $217 −$68 -32%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8AM ET Jun 13 $113 −$113 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $95 +$49 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$27 +431%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $229 −$42 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $104 +$82 +79%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 10? Jun 11 $51 +$19 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 11 $20 +$18 +94%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$40 +400%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 10 $6 +$9 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $306 −$306 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 10 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 10 $102 +$47 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 10 $201 +$19 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 09 $102 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 09 $126 −$22 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $109 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $7 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $6 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.88 · official $2.88 (match) · 415 history records