Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:13:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
11 0x119b…ac3e sports 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$346 (-1%) realized +$602 · open −$948
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,120per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$273est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$19,052now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$3,757
other 43% +$4,635
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +11.6% +1.0% 67% 67% +1.4%
≤30d 3 +11.6% +1.0% 67% 67% +1.4%
≤90d 3 +11.6% +1.0% 67% 67% +1.4%
all 3 +11.6% +1.0% 67% 67% +1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.0% 67% +1.4%
10% ← realistic here -8.7% 67% -8.3%
15% -17.5% 67% -17.2%
20% -25.6% 67% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3,413 vs −$5,000 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$19,052
Realized+$602
Unrealized−$948
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$273
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$7,120
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $10,000 $11,222 +$1,222 (+12%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Uzbekistan 53¢ 42¢ $10,000 $7,830 −$2,170 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5,061 +$3,413 +67%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5,061 +$3,413 +67%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5,070 −$5,000 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 53¢ $10,141 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $5,061 4h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10,266 6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $5,070 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $5,061 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19,052.39 · official $19,052.39 (match) · 8 history records