Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:41:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
11 0x119d…bec3 sports 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,186 (+11%) realized +$2,418 · open −$232
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%42W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$192per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$366est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$419now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6,832
7 days+$7,431
14 days+$7,078
30 days+$1,673
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$1,645
other 4% −$28
crypto 1% −$80
tech 0% −$66
world 0% −$12
economics 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +31.9% +19.3% 49% 49% +96.5%
≤30d 93 +12.6% +1.9% 45% 43% -1.1%
≤90d 93 +12.6% +1.9% 45% 43% -1.1%
all 93 +12.6% +1.9% 45% 43% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.9% 43% -1.1%
10% -7.8% 42% -10.6%
15% -16.8% 40% -19.2%
20% -24.9% 35% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$268 vs −$188 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$419
Realized+$2,418
Unrealized−$232
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses42 / 51
Est. fees paid−$366
Open positions8
Markets (closed)93 / 102
History coverage29d
Avg bet$192
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 46¢ $300 $184 −$116 (-39%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 30¢ 28¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 7¢ 13¢ $17 $33 +$15 (+90%)
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $35 $30 −$5 (-15%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 52¢ 12¢ $100 $24 −$76 (-76%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Portugal 45¢ 3¢ $30 $2 −$28 (-94%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 1¢ 0¢ $19 $1 −$18 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$29 +57%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $4,178 +$6,926 +166%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $152 +$76 +50%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $41 +$80 +197%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $43 −$42 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $51 +$39 +78%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $188 −$184 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $17 −$17 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $145 −$26 -18%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $71 −$70 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $62 +$13 +21%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $182 +$137 +75%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Map Handicap: EDG (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $61 +$99 +162%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $61 +$34 +56%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $107 −$105 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $71 +$148 +207%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $102 +$96 +95%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $127 +$168 +132%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $25 +$42 +165%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 +$88 +172%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 +$21 +105%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $59 +$94 +159%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $157 −$30 -19%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $62 +$101 +162%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$70 +682%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $27 −$27 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $71 −$70 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $20 +$51 +247%
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 12 $58 −$56 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $51 +$10 +20%
Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$53 +520%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $160 −$157 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $132 −$130 -98%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $137 −$6 -4%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $64 −$60 -94%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $219 −$20 -9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 02 $38 −$12 -32%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 02 $152 −$150 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 45¢ $30 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $101 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $302 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $79 15h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $11,104 15h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 27¢ $31 16h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 30¢ $51 16h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $4,178 17h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 17h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 23h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 12¢ $10 25h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 10¢ $8 25h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 23¢ $10 25h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 21¢ $10 25h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 47¢ $30 25h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 21¢ $15 25h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Vitality 96¢ $90 25h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 53¢ $51 26h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 8¢ $21 27h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 10¢ $21 27h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 15¢ $51 27h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 3¢ $1 27h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 5¢ $5 27h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 3¢ $1 27h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 19¢ $10 28h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 32¢ $36 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $419.09 · official $449.10 · 257 history records