Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:58:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x11a1…8597 sports 988 markets active 0h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$120 (-0%) realized −$140 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate53%524W / 462L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day48.2pace
Fees−$274est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$195now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$156
7 days+$192
14 days+$531
30 days−$171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$271
other 1% −$65
crypto 0% −$6
world 0% −$1
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -7.0% -15.9% 72% 28% -5.8%
≤30d 291 -4.6% -13.7% 59% 39% -9.7%
≤90d 986 -7.6% -16.4% 53% 41% -10.2%
all 986 -7.6% -16.4% 53% 41% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 41% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 32% -18.8%
15% -31.7% 24% -26.7%
20% -38.4% 17% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$195
Realized−$140
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses524 / 462
Est. fees paid−$274
Open positions2
Markets (closed)986 / 988
History coverage48d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day48.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 986 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky New York Liberty 72¢ 80¢ $150 $166 +$16 (+10%)
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Washington Mystics 65¢ 76¢ $25 $30 +$4 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 77 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce Jun 17 $330 +$8 +2%
Legia Warszawa vs. Basket Zielona Gora Jun 17 $20 −$3 -14%
Aguada Santeros vs. Indios de Mayaguez Jun 17 $56 +$5 +8%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $206 +$35 +17%
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano Jun 16 $480 +$20 +4%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $201 +$65 +32%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $46 +$18 +39%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 16 $671 +$8 +1%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $50 −$2 -3%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $69 −$68 -99%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Jun 15 $20 +$6 +28%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Basket Zielona Gora vs. Legia Warszawa Jun 15 $76 −$52 -68%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 −$6 -30%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 −$1 -3%
Joventut vs. Valencia Jun 14 $30 +$28 +93%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $124 +$12 +10%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 14 $55 +$5 +9%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $221 +$14 +6%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $491 +$131 +27%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Jun 14 $117 −$65 -55%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $424 +$2 +0%
La Laguna Tenerife vs. Barcelona Jun 13 $236 +$22 +9%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $406 +$19 +5%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $202 +$10 +5%
Valencia vs. Joventut Jun 12 $10 +$3 +31%
BC Zenit vs. Lokomotiv Kuban Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $350 +$1 +0%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $150 +$4 +3%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $378 +$4 +1%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $160 +$4 +3%
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 11 $90 +$16 +18%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $101 +$20 +20%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 10 $61 +$1 +2%
Unics Kazan vs. CSKA Moscow Jun 10 $40 +$16 +39%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 10 $151 +$26 +17%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 10 $161 +$37 +23%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 10 $150 +$9 +6%
Cholet vs. Paris Basketball Jun 09 $46 +$7 +15%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $111 +$6 +6%
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics Jun 09 $403 +$64 +16%
New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 09 $26 −$20 -78%
Nanterre vs. Monaco Jun 08 $5 −$1 -17%
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 08 $61 +$27 +44%
Anadolu Efes vs. Fenerbahce Jun 08 $5 +$4 +76%
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 08 $50 +$19 +38%
Saski Baskonia vs. Joventut Jun 07 $5 +$12 +238%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Washington Mystics 44¢ $17 10m
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 53¢ $5 18m
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 53¢ $10 19m
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Washington Mystics 69¢ $34 24m
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 72¢ $151 29m
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 65¢ $0 32m
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 72¢ $71 39m
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Washington Mystics 65¢ $32 57m
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Washington Mystics 66¢ $150 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 50¢ $10 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 50¢ $30 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 57¢ $41 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 58¢ $30 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 58¢ $46 1h
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce SELL Fenerbahce 99¢ $89 5h
Legia Warszawa vs. Basket Zielona Gora SELL Basket Zielona Gora 53¢ $17 5h
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce SELL Fenerbahce 98¢ $250 6h
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Fenerbahce 99¢ $250 6h
Legia Warszawa vs. Basket Zielona Gora BUY Basket Zielona Gora 60¢ $20 6h
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Fenerbahce 82¢ $5 6h
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Fenerbahce 78¢ $5 6h
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Fenerbahce 90¢ $50 6h
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Fenerbahce 84¢ $20 6h
Aguada Santeros vs. Indios de Mayaguez BUY Aguada Santeros 91¢ $15 23h
Aguada Santeros vs. Indios de Mayaguez BUY Aguada Santeros 93¢ $41 23h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 71¢ $30 24h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 89¢ $100 25h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 89¢ $35 25h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 89¢ $5 25h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 85¢ $30 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $195.41 · official $195.41 (match) · 3013 history records