Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:21:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x11a2…b962 crypto 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 393d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-1%) realized −$25 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate42%14W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$22
14 days−$22
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$2
world 17% −$1
tech 17% −$1
other 15% +$4
sports 5% −$25
crypto 3% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -10.5% -19.0% 20% 20% -10.4%
≤30d 6 -8.7% -17.4% 33% 17% -10.4%
≤90d 7 -7.5% -16.3% 43% 14% -10.4%
all 33 -1.5% -10.9% 42% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 3% -10.0%
10% -19.4% 3% -18.6%
15% -27.2% 3% -26.5%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
0.9 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

393d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized−$25
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses14 / 19
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)33 / 36
History coverage393d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 51¢ 52¢ $95 $98 +$3 (+3%)
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. SSG Landers Samsung Lions 60¢ 50¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-17%)
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.70 on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 17 $728 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $725 −$1 -0%
Will Reza Pirzadeh be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 17 $735 −$1 -0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $9 +$5 +48%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Solana dip to $10 in March? May 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 March 2-8? Apr 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 11 $30 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 December 15-21? Mar 11 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 05 $30 $0 -0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.30 in November? Dec 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in November? Dec 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 26 $30 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $38 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $160 on September 13? Nov 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $4000 August 11–17? Oct 20 $5 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August? Sep 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1500 in August? Sep 01 $6 $0 +1%
Will Meta have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 18 $30 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 05 $38 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? Jul 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in June? Jul 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? Jun 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 24 $36 $0 -0%
Will Hubert Hurkacz win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 24 $42 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 175–199 times May 23–30? May 30 $267 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el May 30 $250 $0 -0%
Will Lee Nak-yon win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential electi May 24 $270 $0 -0%
Will AOC win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? May 24 $268 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 World Series? May 20 $272 $0 -0%
Will FIT-U hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following th May 20 $264 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $97 1h
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $727 1h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $728 1h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $719 1h
Will Reza Pirzadeh be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Reza Pirzadeh be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $733 1h
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.70 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $11 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $9 2d
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. SSG Landers BUY Samsung Lions 60¢ $20 21d
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) BUY Timberwolves 52¢ $24 36d
Will Solana dip to $10 in March? BUY No 100¢ $20 79d
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 98d
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 98d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $30 104d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 March 2-8? BUY No 100¢ $11 104d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $15 104d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $15 104d
Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 December 15-21? BUY No 99¢ $11 180d
Will Getafe win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $30 203d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.30 in November? BUY No 100¢ $8 203d
Will Getafe win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $30 203d
Will XRP reach $6.00 in November? BUY No 100¢ $11 203d
Will the price of Solana be less than $160 on September 13? BUY No 100¢ $7 277d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August? BUY No 100¢ $6 303d
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 303d
Will Ethereum dip to $4000 August 11–17? BUY No 100¢ $5 303d
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $30 303d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August? BUY No 100¢ $5 303d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 315d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.98 · official $125.98 (match) · 88 history records