Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:37:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x11a2…e2fa other 51 markets active 23h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$21 (-8%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%13W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$2
14 days−$7
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$16
other 14% −$4
crypto 5% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -10.3% -18.8% 18% 18% -14.5%
≤30d 31 -19.0% -26.7% 16% 16% -40.3%
≤90d 51 -13.0% -21.3% 25% 25% -18.5%
all 51 -13.0% -21.3% 25% 25% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 25% -18.5%
10% -28.8% 25% -26.3%
15% -35.7% 25% -33.4%
20% -42.0% 25% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×2.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses13 / 38
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage49d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 +$7 +712%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $3 $0 -5%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 +$7 +712%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +172%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 $0 -5%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +165%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 14 $2 +$3 +129%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 13 $12 +$14 +114%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings May 11 $10 +$11 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings May 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants May 06 $10 −$10 -100%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. New Zealand: Bangladesh vs New Zealand May 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 06 $16 −$16 -100%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 06 $2 $0 -10%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings May 04 $15 +$18 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 01 $1 +$2 +156%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 01 $15 +$20 +134%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 30 $20 +$21 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Apr 30 $2 +$2 +77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 22h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 22h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 22h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 39h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 39h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 39h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 49¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 5d
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 6d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 47¢ $4 6d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 79 history records