Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:48:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
11 0x11a8…3a61 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$129 (+29%) realized +$101 · open +$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$134
sports 15% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+31.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +45.7% +31.8% 100% 100% +31.8%
≤30d 2 +45.7% +31.8% 100% 100% +31.8%
≤90d 2 +45.7% +31.8% 100% 100% +31.8%
all 2 +45.7% +31.8% 100% 100% +31.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.8% 100% +31.8%
10% +19.2% 100% +19.2%
15% +7.7% 100% +7.7%
20% -2.9% 0% -2.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +46% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized+$101
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)2 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 62¢ 88¢ $50 $71 +$21 (+43%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 90¢ $60 $70 +$10 (+16%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $34 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $16 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 55¢ 40¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$46 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $177 +$81 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $10 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $60 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $16 20h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $35 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $177 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.47 · official $198.47 (match) · 9 history records