Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:21:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x11ab…4f65 other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,445 (-72%) realized −$1,398 · open −$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -74% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -77% what you keep after slip
Net edge-77%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%4W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$1,034
sports 28% −$394
crypto 4% −$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-76.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -74.0% -76.5% 12% 12% -82.2%
≤30d 32 -74.0% -76.5% 12% 12% -82.2%
≤90d 32 -74.0% -76.5% 12% 12% -82.2%
all 32 -74.0% -76.5% 12% 12% -82.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -76.5% 12% -82.2%
10% -78.7% 12% -83.9%
15% -80.8% 9% -85.5%
20% -82.7% 6% -86.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 83% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -80% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -74% · $-wt -80% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -56% → late -92% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$56 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized−$1,398
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses4 / 28
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage6d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Over 62¢ 44¢ $100 $71 −$29 (-29%)
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $50 $32 −$18 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $132 +$41 +31%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Japan? Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $103 −$76 -74%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $103 −$92 -90%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $71 −$70 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $124 −$122 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 +$9 +44%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $31 +$41 +134%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$8 +76%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $46 −$39 -84%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $33 −$32 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $25 −$1 -6%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $51 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $31 21h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $71 21h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 21h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 22h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 23h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 46h
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 46h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 2¢ $27 2d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 3d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 3d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 20¢ $41 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $25 3d
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 3¢ $26 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 4¢ $46 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 34¢ $71 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $124 3d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 3d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 3d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $14 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $16 3d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 4d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.41 · official $103.41 (match) · 68 history records