Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:20:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x11ac…9be4 other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$77 (-21%) realized −$82 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit7%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$82
crypto 20% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-40.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -34.6% -40.8% 33% 17% -39.7%
≤30d 12 -34.6% -40.8% 33% 17% -39.7%
≤90d 12 -34.6% -40.8% 33% 17% -39.7%
all 12 -34.6% -40.8% 33% 17% -39.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.8% 17% -39.7%
10% -46.5% 17% -45.5%
15% -51.7% 17% -50.8%
20% -56.4% 17% -55.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -65% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$17 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage11d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $69 $66 −$2 (-3%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 52¢ $18 $26 +$8 (+45%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $21 +$13 +64%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $15 +$33 +216%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 2 Qatar? Jun 24 $18 −$18 -97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 - 2 Qatar? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $51 −$3 -5%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $39 −$38 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $36 +$3 +10%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 1 Haiti? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 24 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $42 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 69¢ $35 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 39¢ $21 2d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $18 3d
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes 4¢ $18 3d
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 3d
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 15¢ $49 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 12¢ $39 3d
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 15¢ $39 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 31¢ $15 4d
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 4d
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 8¢ $26 4d
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $36 4d
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 4d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 11d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 11d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.10 · official $94.10 (match) · 30 history records