Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:37:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x11ae…2b64 world 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 456d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate38%13W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% $0
other 28% $0
politics 5% −$2
crypto 4% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.1% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 20 -0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 20 -0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.6%
all 34 -0.5% -10.0% 38% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

456d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses13 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage456d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 20 $37 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $32 $0 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $36 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $33 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $42 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $53 −$1 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $76 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $33 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 30 $34 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $4 $0 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $32 +$2 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $37 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $33 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $72 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 26 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $33 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Jun 28 $8 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 23–30? May 31 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $95000 and $97000 on May 9? May 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? Apr 24 $9 −$1 -12%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76000 on Apr 18? Apr 19 $9 $0 +4%
Will the PPC win 1 seat in the next Canadian Election? Apr 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will Scottie Scheffler win The 2025 Masters? Apr 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 13 $8 $0 -1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Bloc Québécois win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canad Apr 12 $10 $0 -2%
Will Trump post 160-179 times on Truth March 21-28? Mar 31 $12 −$2 -16%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? Mar 22 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $37 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $37 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $33 11h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $19 14h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $13 14h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $36 19h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $36 21h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $33 26h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $33 29h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $33 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $32 36h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $37 43h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $37 44h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 53¢ $33 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 53¢ $22 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 53¢ $11 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $33 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $6 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $28 17d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 18d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $8 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $35 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records