Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:02:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
11 0x11b4…f512 other 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 27L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$385per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$5
other 42% −$5
sports 10% −$1
world 3% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 27 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 27 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$956) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage82d
Avg bet$385
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $1,004 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will Viktor Gyökeres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $31 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $984 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 13 $66 $0 -0%
Will Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? May 13 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? May 13 $25 $0 -1%
Will the Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP) win the 2026 South Korean local Apr 17 $46 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $34 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $982 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 16 $42 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $918 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $971 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $956 −$1 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 15 $1,022 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 14 $973 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $914 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $876 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 01 $122 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 01 $22 $0 -0%
US strike on Mexico by March 31? Apr 01 $23 $0 -0%
Will Israel strike 14 countries in 2026? Mar 26 $73 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electio Mar 26 $73 $0 -0%
Will Maryam Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Mar 26 $29 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,003 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $28 1h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $951 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $16 2h
Will Viktor Gyökeres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $31 2h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $11 2h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 2h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $763 2h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 3h
Will Viktor Gyökeres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $31 3h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $220 3h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $984 3h
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb SELL No 99¢ $66 33d
Will Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? SELL No 98¢ $27 34d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY No 99¢ $42 34d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 93¢ $14 34d
Will Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? BUY No 98¢ $12 34d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY No 99¢ $12 34d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 93¢ $11 34d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY No 99¢ $13 34d
Will Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? BUY No 98¢ $15 34d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 93¢ $25 34d
Will the Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP) win the 2026 South Korean local SELL No 100¢ $46 60d
Will the Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP) win the 2026 South Korean local BUY No 100¢ $26 60d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $34 60d
Will the Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP) win the 2026 South Korean local BUY No 100¢ $20 60d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $34 60d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $981 61d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $42 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 84 history records