Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:29:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x11b7…1997 world 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate49%19W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$4
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 92% +$2
other 7% −$2
sports 1% $0
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.8% -8.8% 60% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 29 -0.1% -9.6% 48% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 34 +1.4% -8.3% 53% 6% -9.1%
all 39 -1.5% -10.8% 49% 8% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 8% -9.8%
10% -19.4% 5% -18.4%
15% -27.2% 3% -26.3%
20% -34.3% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses19 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage527d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $110 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 17 $69 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $36 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $44 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $76 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $33 +$1 +4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $37 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $2 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $71 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $2 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $48 −$6 -13%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $34 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $67 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $3 $0 -8%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 29 $13 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $65 +$2 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 27 $37 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $41 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $37 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $37 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $18 +$1 +8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $24 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $6 +$1 +13%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 12 $12 +$3 +29%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 12 $245 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 45-46°F on February 13? Mar 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Zach Ertz score a touchdown? Feb 06 $10 −$10 -100%
OG Shoots vs. Easy Jan 18 $5 $0 +0%
RASMR vs. Threadguy Jan 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ohio State win by 6 or more points? Jan 11 $4 +$4 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 93¢ $41 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 14h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $41 42h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $41 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $33 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $36 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $5 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $5 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $36 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $36 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $30 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $6 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $36 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $36 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $6 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $29 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $38 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $38 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $10 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $38 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $38 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $21 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $14 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $17 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $16 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.14 · official $41.14 (match) · 134 history records