trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +2.2% | -7.5% | 50% | 0% | -7.6% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +1.0% | -8.6% | 50% | 0% | -8.9% |
| ≤90d | 4 | +1.0% | -8.6% | 50% | 0% | -8.9% |
| all | 17 | -2.5% | -11.8% | 71% | 6% | -7.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.8% | 6% | -7.5% |
| 10% | -20.2% | 6% | -16.3% |
| 15% | -27.9% | 0% | -24.4% |
| 20% | -35.0% | 0% | -31.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 89¢ | $35 | $35 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 18 | $68 | +$3 | +4% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 18 | $71 | $0 | -0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | May 26 | $37 | −$2 | -5% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | May 23 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? | Dec 09 | $1 | $0 | +9% |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? | Dec 09 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? | Jun 01 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Victor Ponta win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian | May 07 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? | Apr 17 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will 'Snow White' gross more than 49m on opening weekend? | Mar 25 | $18 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 14-21? | Mar 22 | $15 | +$1 | +8% |
| Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Mar 19 | $1 | $0 | -12% |
| Ethereum above $2,200 on March 14? | Mar 15 | $15 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 13 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? | Mar 12 | $15 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Atalanta win the Serie A? | Mar 10 | $17 | −$1 | -5% |
| Miami (FL) vs. Georgia Tech | Mar 06 | $14 | +$3 | +24% |