Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:47:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x11c1…3025 world 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 399d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate44%14W / 18L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$2
other 25% −$1
crypto 12% +$1
tech 9% $0
politics 3% $0
sports 3% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 +0.6% -8.9% 36% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 11 +0.6% -8.9% 36% 0% -9.1%
all 32 -0.5% -10.0% 44% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.5% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.1 per $1 lost it wins $2.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

399d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage399d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 96¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $43 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $74 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $7 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $34 +$1 +4%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $43 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $39 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 +5%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $41 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 30 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 01 $6 $0 -8%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jun 26 $22 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win less than 2% of the vote in the South Korea elec May 31 $22 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 31 $22 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? May 26 $22 $0 -0%
Will ‘Suicide Squad ISEKAI’ win Crunchyroll's Best Isekai Award for 20 May 26 $22 $0 +1%
Will MicroStrategy hold 600k+ BTC before June? May 24 $22 +$1 +2%
Timberwolves vs. Thunder May 24 $21 $0 +2%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 22 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $100K and $101K on May 23? May 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? May 20 $2 $0 -15%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? May 20 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? May 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 20 $6 $0 -0%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? May 19 $21 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? May 19 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? May 19 $6 $0 -0%
Will Dan or Simion win the diaspora vote? May 18 $7 −$1 -9%
Will Portugal finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 16 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $39 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 8h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $43 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $43 13h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $35 18h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $35 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 29h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $30 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $30 33h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $38 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $1 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $39 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $16 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $28 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $16 13d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $43 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $39 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $39 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $10 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.18 · official $39.13 (match) · 108 history records