Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:38:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x11c1…3aa9 sports 166 markets active 2h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%11W / 154L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 36% −$5
other 20% −$4
economics 13% −$3
politics 12% −$2
world 6% −$1
crypto 5% $0
culture 5% −$1
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 4 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.2%
all 165 -0.0% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses11 / 154
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)165 / 166
History coverage172d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 96¢ 96¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 14 $27 $0 -1%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $78 −$1 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 30 $31 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $29 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $147 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 03 $184 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 03 $334 −$1 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 03 $73 $0 -0%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 03 $24 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 03 $35 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 03 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 03 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Mar 03 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 03 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 03 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 03 $226 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 03 $300 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 03 $74 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Mar 03 $114 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Mar 03 $157 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 02 $141 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 02 $290 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $178 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 02 $151 $0 -0%
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 02 $72 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 02 $74 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Mar 02 $155 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 02 $277 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Mar 02 $26 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 02 $3 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 02 $190 $0 -0%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 02 $29 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 02 $151 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Mar 02 $36 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $71 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 02 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 02 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 02 $245 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 02 $71 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $88 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 02 $36 $0 -0%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 02 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 02 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 02 $114 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 02 $88 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 02 $74 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 02 $212 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $146 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $30 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $26 11d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $27 12d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 90¢ $34 19d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 91¢ $35 20d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $30 27d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $31 27d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $28 39d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $29 39d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 96¢ $35 114d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 96¢ $35 114d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $36 114d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $36 115d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 93¢ $25 115d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 94¢ $25 115d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 96¢ $28 115d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 96¢ $28 115d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? SELL No 92¢ $24 115d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY No 92¢ $24 115d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 90¢ $32 115d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 90¢ $32 115d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $31 115d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $31 115d
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 96¢ $32 115d
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $32 115d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $34 115d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $34 115d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $35 115d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $35 115d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $34 115d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.89 · official $29.89 (match) · 731 history records