Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:17:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
11 0x11c2…d22a crypto 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$99 (-6%) realized −$110 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$1,114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$11
crypto 16% −$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-35.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 -28.9% -35.7% 43% 29% -43.9%
≤90d 7 -28.9% -35.7% 43% 29% -43.9%
all 7 -28.9% -35.7% 43% 29% -43.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.7% 29% -43.9%
10% -41.8% 29% -49.3%
15% -47.4% 14% -54.2%
20% -52.6% 14% -58.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$34 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$1,114
Realized−$110
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Open positions6
Markets (closed)7 / 13
History coverage15d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $414 $407 −$6 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $338 $357 +$19 (+5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $106 $106 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $49 $51 +$2 (+5%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $45 $43 −$2 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 09 $23 −$22 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 08 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 08 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 08 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 08 $27 +$43 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 08 $75 +$2 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $225 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $46 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $46 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $102 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $30 12h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $190 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $78 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $36 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $98 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $20 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $37 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $46 6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $11 7d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $62 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $72 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $108 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $23 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,113.75 · official $1,113.75 (match) · 48 history records