Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:49:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x11c5…70e3 sports 866 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (175 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$674 (+11%) realized −$102 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate66%549W / 287L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day175.1pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$57
14 days−$109
30 days−$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$48
other 12% −$50
crypto 0% −$10
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (175 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -26.8% -33.7% 50% 36% -43.2%
≤30d 836 -2.4% -11.7% 66% 46% -11.0%
≤90d 836 -2.4% -11.7% 66% 46% -11.0%
all 836 -2.4% -11.7% 66% 46% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover175.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 46% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 33% -19.5%
15% -27.9% 24% -27.3%
20% -34.9% 17% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized−$102
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses549 / 287
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions31
Markets (closed)836 / 866
History coverage14d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day175.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 836 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Cabo Verde 68¢ 68¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 85¢ $8 $13 +$5 (+70%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 62¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+5%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? No 92¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? No 80¢ 78¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? No 21¢ 20¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? Yes 40¢ 41¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? No 91¢ 90¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? No 72¢ 72¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 15¢ $8 $2 −$5 (-70%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? No 76¢ 78¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? No 82¢ 80¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? No 93¢ 93¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Under 71¢ 70¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? No 12¢ 12¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 42¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 76¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 45¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? No 81¢ 81¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5) New York Mets 73¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Under 75¢ 73¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 33¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Sweden 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $8 +$6 +67%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +52%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $9 +$2 +27%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $12 −$10 -84%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $3 +$1 +42%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 $0 +2%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $2 +$1 +46%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $3 −$1 -42%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$4 +188%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 $0 +8%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $1 +$2 +134%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +26%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +48%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-3.5) Jun 12 $1 +$1 +114%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +41%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +38%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $1 +$1 +67%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Jun 09 $1 $0 +36%
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 168.5 Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will CDPJuniorFC win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $1 $0 +14%
Spread: Atlético Nacional (-1.5) Jun 09 $1 +$1 +70%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $2 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5) BUY New York Mets 73¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 12¢ $2 1h
Sweden leading at halftime? BUY No 62¢ $1 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 68¢ $12 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 34¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 71¢ $2 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 69¢ $8 2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Under 65¢ $2 2h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 85¢ $1 4h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 26¢ $1 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $3 4h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 84¢ $1 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $1 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $3 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $1 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $1 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $2 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 96¢ $2 5h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 70¢ $3 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 5h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $1 7h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 7h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $3 7h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 43¢ $1 7h
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 43¢ $1 7h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 68¢ $2 45h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $2 45h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 92¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.75 · official $88.75 (match) · 3500 history records