Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:02:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x11cd…e5a8 sports 157 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$700 (-3%) realized −$653 · open −$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%56W / 82L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Fees−$385est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1,451now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,080
7 days+$235
14 days−$1,003
30 days−$1,981
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$2,249
other 20% −$86
crypto 3% +$84
weather 0% −$40
politics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +35.9% +22.9% 32% 32% -4.7%
≤30d 118 +15.2% +4.3% 40% 38% -21.7%
≤90d 138 +7.6% -2.7% 41% 38% -21.9%
all 138 +7.6% -2.7% 41% 38% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.7% 38% -21.9%
10% -12.0% 38% -29.4%
15% -20.5% 30% -36.2%
20% -28.3% 23% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$90 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$1,451
Realized−$653
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses56 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$385
Open positions19
Markets (closed)138 / 157
History coverage32d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $485 $491 +$6 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $200 $213 +$13 (+6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $120 $120 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $64 $63 −$1 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $50 $33 −$17 (-34%)
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-5%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-16%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-18%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-28%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-8%)
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-33%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-58%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 3¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 77 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $536 +$917 +171%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $276 −$70 -25%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $122 −$13 -10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $518 +$263 +51%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $27 −$26 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $111 −$45 -40%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $91 −$89 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $101 +$36 +36%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $69 +$241 +346%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $90 −$9 -10%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Haiti? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $71 −$70 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 20 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $290 −$35 -12%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $23 −$23 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $382 +$98 +26%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $109 +$13 +12%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $376 −$368 -98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $65 −$63 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 +$23 +114%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$4 +39%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos Jun 16 $490 +$7 +1%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $105 −$5 -4%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $217 +$365 +168%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $190 −$150 -79%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $99 +$46 +46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $168 −$164 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $161 +$177 +110%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 14 $302 −$296 -98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $29 −$20 -69%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $1,713 −$374 -22%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $214 +$400 +187%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $123 −$55 -45%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $41 −$20 -50%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $119 −$74 -62%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $226 −$220 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $15 +$268 +1735%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $91 +$50 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $36 45m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 50m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 51m
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 51m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 51m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $123 55m
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $66 56m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 56m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 56m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $206 56m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $323 58m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 59m
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,313 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $38 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $39 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $17 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 9¢ $17 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $58 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $58 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $141 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $67 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $74 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $75 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 8¢ $74 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 9¢ $138 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $139 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 8¢ $31 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $71 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 8¢ $72 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,450.72 · official $1,451.29 (match) · 651 history records