Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:01:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x11d1…0b41 other 452 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,491 (-19%) realized −$2,797 · open +$306
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%140W / 262L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Fees−$75est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$1,796now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$302
7 days+$211
14 days−$52
30 days−$385
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$2,149
sports 29% +$1,641
crypto 3% −$84
world 1% −$76
politics 1% −$16
tech 1% −$97
culture 0% +$3
finance 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 +39.1% +25.8% 25% 25% -1.6%
≤30d 206 -0.9% -10.3% 32% 31% -17.5%
≤90d 401 -6.0% -15.0% 35% 34% -18.4%
all 402 -6.1% -15.0% 35% 34% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 34% -18.4%
10% -23.1% 32% -26.2%
15% -30.6% 29% -33.3%
20% -37.4% 26% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$23 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$1,796
Realized−$2,797
Unrealized+$306
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses140 / 262
Est. fees paid−$75
Open positions20
Markets (closed)402 / 452
History coverage91d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 402 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $235 $502 +$268 (+114%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $296 $270 −$26 (-9%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 86¢ $117 $260 +$142 (+122%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $84 $172 +$88 (+105%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $128 $122 −$6 (-4%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $152 $108 −$44 (-29%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $101 $73 −$27 (-27%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $90 $65 −$25 (-28%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $52 $58 +$6 (+12%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 36¢ $26 $36 +$10 (+38%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+17%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $35 $28 −$8 (-21%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+14%)
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $21 $14 −$7 (-32%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $40 $10 −$30 (-75%)
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Morocco? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $35 $7 −$28 (-81%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $15 $4 −$10 (-70%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $9 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+12%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 141 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $21 −$2 -12%
Will Qatar finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 19 $9 −$8 -93%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 AND Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herze Jun 19 $51 +$282 +550%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Spread: Canad Jun 19 $31 +$213 +692%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $19 −$19 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $8 +$16 +197%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Qatar? Jun 18 $21 −$13 -62%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 3 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Qatar? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $29 −$26 -92%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $37 −$26 -69%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $77 +$109 +141%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $62 −$60 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $42 −$25 -60%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $32 +$18 +55%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $59 −$59 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $33 −$9 -26%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $18 +$4 +20%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 +$22 +212%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Nor Jun 17 $26 +$118 +461%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $743 −$735 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $23 −$23 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $302 −$300 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? A Jun 15 $15 +$190 +1233%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 AND Côte Jun 15 $41 +$211 +514%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $122 −$119 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $28 −$28 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 AND Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Qat Jun 14 $46 +$815 +1760%
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $7 −$3 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $27 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 4¢ $35 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $43 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY 4¢ $31 10h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) AND Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Spread: United St BUY 1¢ $15 10h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY 1¢ $15 10h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 AND Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Br BUY 3¢ $26 10h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 24¢ $19 12h
Will Qatar finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S SELL Yes 1¢ $1 12h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Wi BUY 13¢ $90 12h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 23h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 23h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 23h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 23h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 23h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 23h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 23h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 23h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 23h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 23h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $12 23h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 23h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,796.48 · official $2,007.58 · 1522 history records