Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:14:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
11 0x11d4…406f other 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$172 (-3%) realized +$40 · open −$212
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate80%33W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$890now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$178
7 days+$42
14 days+$273
30 days+$273
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$509
politics 21% −$133
sports 19% +$47
world 18% −$405
tech 1% +$19
economics 0% +$25
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)+17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +30.1% +17.7% 79% 67% -8.6%
≤30d 41 +30.3% +17.9% 80% 68% -4.8%
≤90d 41 +30.3% +17.9% 80% 68% -4.8%
all 41 +30.3% +17.9% 80% 68% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.9% 68% -4.8%
10% +6.6% 46% -13.9%
15% -3.7% 32% -22.2%
20% -13.1% 20% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +52% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$106 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$890
Realized+$40
Unrealized−$212
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses33 / 8
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions12
Markets (closed)41 / 54
History coverage12d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? No 79¢ 100¢ $210 $265 +$55 (+26%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? No 83¢ 82¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? No 83¢ 84¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? No 76¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 73¢ 72¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? No 61¢ 32¢ $122 $64 −$58 (-48%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 8¢ 28¢ $10 $34 +$25 (+256%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 79¢ 10¢ $238 $30 −$208 (-87%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 18¢ 8¢ $36 $17 −$19 (-53%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+6%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $17 $11 −$5 (-32%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $101 −$10 -10%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2 Jun 19 $71 +$38 +54%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$26 +26%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $71 +$68 +95%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $151 +$60 +40%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $151 +$30 +20%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $101 +$38 +38%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? AN Jun 17 $50 +$24 +47%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $201 +$22 +11%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect Jun 16 $142 −$140 -99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-0 Jun 16 $51 +$36 +71%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 +$26 +26%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $100 +$12 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $266 +$34 +13%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 +$17 +17%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? AND Jun 15 $25 +$41 +160%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$28 +27%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$58 +57%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$35 +34%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 15 $60 +$40 +67%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 15 $20 +$29 +144%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 +$2 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $200 −$200 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $230 −$230 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $7 +$3 +49%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $53 −$49 -93%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $457 +$71 +16%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Neither team to score first? Jun 13 $298 +$3 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 13 $168 +$28 +17%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $10 +$73 +712%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $84 +$19 +23%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $201 −$87 -43%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $155 +$71 +46%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $674 +$160 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 48m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY 53¢ $81 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 76¢ $101 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 73¢ $101 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $101 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $151 1h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Korea Republic 72¢ $90 5h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2 BUY 64¢ $71 23h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 79¢ $101 26h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 65¢ $101 27h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 79¢ $101 27h
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY Yes 17¢ $18 46h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY 50¢ $71 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $50 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $151 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $151 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 72¢ $101 2d
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect BUY Yes 70¢ $142 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $36 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? AN BUY 67¢ $50 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $100 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 90¢ $201 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 95¢ $10 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $100 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 79¢ $101 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $100 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 85¢ $100 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $10 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-0 BUY 58¢ $51 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $889.95 · official $969.96 · 170 history records