Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:32:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x11d8…9007 world 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 278d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$26 (-2%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate39%19W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$12
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$26
other 16% +$1
politics 14% +$1
sports 12% $0
economics 3% −$1
crypto 3% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -3.3% -12.5% 29% 0% -13.7%
≤30d 15 -2.3% -11.6% 27% 0% -12.0%
≤90d 15 -2.3% -11.6% 27% 0% -12.0%
all 49 -3.5% -12.7% 39% 0% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 0% -11.4%
10% -21.1% 0% -19.9%
15% -28.7% 0% -27.7%
20% -35.7% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

278d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses19 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage278d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $43 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $44 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $25 −$1 -5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $44 +$2 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $19 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $21 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $55 −$12 -22%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $7 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $19 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $30 −$3 -9%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $140 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $26 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 06 $9 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 05 $28 −$1 -4%
Will the U.S. take over Gaza in 2025? Jan 31 $10 $0 +2%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Dec 21 $2 −$1 -50%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Dec 06 $11 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Nov 04 $10 $0 +2%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66? Oct 27 $12 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? Oct 26 $12 $0 +1%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 26 $11 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Oct 26 $20 $0 +1%
Will G2 Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Heather Humphreys win by 0–5%? Oct 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 24 $20 $0 +1%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Oct 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Sep 25 $40 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 25 $20 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 24 $42 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 22 $51 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland? Sep 21 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 21 $21 $0 -0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will Michelle O’Neill win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 17 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 16 $21 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 16 $23 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Sep 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Sep 13 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $8 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $8 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $25 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $43 43h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $43 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $44 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $44 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 22¢ $10 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 22¢ $12 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 23¢ $25 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $45 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $44 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $15 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $4 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $0 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $0 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 18¢ $19 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 24¢ $21 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $21 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 55¢ $9 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 51¢ $34 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 66¢ $55 5d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $23 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $26 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $7 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $43 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.59 · official $5.59 (match) · 144 history records