Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:30:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x11d9…da1f sports 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$63 (-18%) realized −$46 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%14W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$70
7 days+$70
14 days+$70
30 days+$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$6
crypto 10% −$22
other 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +101.3% +82.1% 75% 75% +106.6%
≤30d 4 +101.3% +82.1% 75% 75% +106.6%
≤90d 32 -15.4% -23.4% 44% 44% -13.9%
all 32 -15.4% -23.4% 44% 44% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.4% 44% -13.9%
10% -30.8% 38% -22.1%
15% -37.4% 34% -29.6%
20% -43.6% 28% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$9 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$46
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage73d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Spirit 54¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $20 +$47 +237%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $10 +$14 +139%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $14 +$18 +128%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 29 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 29 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 29 $16 +$4 +27%
Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 213.5 Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Zomblers vs regain (BO3) - ESL Challenger League North Apr 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Imperial Academy vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - European Pro Le Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Brute (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #1 Play-In Gro Apr 28 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: G2 NORD vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - Prime League 1st Divisi Apr 27 $21 +$10 +46%
Lakers vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 105.5 Apr 27 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - LCK Challe Apr 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 205.5 Apr 27 $10 +$11 +107%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Sentinels (BO3) - LCS Regular Season Apr 27 $31 +$5 +17%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs Passion UA (BO3) - FRAG Playoffs Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 26 $5 +$9 +172%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 26 $15 +$3 +17%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 24 $10 +$5 +50%
LoL: LGD Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Apr 23 $7 +$4 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs L1ga Team (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Group B Apr 12 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 11 $5 +$9 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 07 $2 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 07 $5 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY 49¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $67 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 29¢ $20 3h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) BUY Spirit 54¢ $17 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $24 5h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) BUY Spirit 55¢ $10 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 41¢ $10 6h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $33 7h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 43¢ $14 8h
LoL: KT Rolster vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 42¢ $15 51d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 7¢ $5 51d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL T1 100¢ $20 51d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY T1 78¢ $16 51d
Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-04-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 51d
Counter-Strike: Zomblers vs regain (BO3) - ESL Challenger League North BUY regain 63¢ $20 52d
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 52d
LoL: G2 NORD vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - Prime League 1st Divisi BUY G2 NORD 68¢ $21 53d
Counter-Strike: Imperial Academy vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - European Pro Le BUY LPH Gaming 50¢ $10 53d
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Brute (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #1 Play-In Gro BUY Brute 30¢ $5 53d
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - LCK Challe BUY Gen.G Global Academy 13¢ $5 53d
Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 205.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 53d
Lakers vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 105.5 BUY Over 51¢ $6 53d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Sentinels (BO3) - LCS Regular Season SELL Team Liquid 100¢ $36 53d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Sentinels (BO3) - LCS Regular Season BUY Team Liquid 85¢ $31 53d
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Ultra Prime 100¢ $14 54d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL Gen.G 100¢ $17 54d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Gen.G 85¢ $15 54d
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Ultra Prime 36¢ $5 54d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs Passion UA (BO3) - FRAG Playoffs BUY NRG 54¢ $5 54d
Knicks vs. Hawks BUY Knicks 21¢ $16 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $10.02 · 73 history records