Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:17:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
11 0x11dd…4515 weather 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$135 (-1%) realized −$153 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate52%16W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$284per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$1,092now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$15
14 days−$25
30 days−$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% $0
world 27% −$69
other 19% −$87
weather 9% −$11
crypto 0% +$3
sports 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -45.1% -50.4% 38% 8% -13.7%
≤30d 29 -24.5% -31.7% 55% 3% -12.3%
≤90d 31 -23.0% -30.3% 52% 3% -10.9%
all 31 -23.0% -30.3% 52% 3% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.3% 3% -10.9%
10% -37.0% 0% -19.4%
15% -43.1% 0% -27.2%
20% -48.7% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$14 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$1,092
Realized−$153
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses16 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)31 / 40
History coverage47d
Avg bet$284
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 12%+? No 98¢ 100¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Yes 43¢ 100¢ $16 $36 +$21 (+132%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-18%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-21%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Yes 5¢ 10¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+90%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 3¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-57%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $18 −$1 -8%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $44 +$3 +6%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $21 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $48 +$1 +2%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $56 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $127 −$3 -3%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $67 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $53 −$9 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 06 $83 −$13 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 6? Jun 06 $21 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 6? Jun 06 $62 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 5? Jun 05 $89 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 4? Jun 04 $32 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 4? Jun 04 $84 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 04 $68 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4? Jun 04 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 4? Jun 04 $40 −$3 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 4? Jun 04 $85 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 4? Jun 04 $59 +$2 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $1,349 −$33 -2%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $2,005 −$74 -4%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 11 $1,739 −$36 -2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $4,997 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $16 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $6 7h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 54¢ $16 9h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $18 9h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 10h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 13h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 13h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $15 20h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? BUY No 94¢ $44 31h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 34h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 40h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY No 86¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 3d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? BUY Yes 98¢ $48 4d
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $56 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? BUY Yes 94¢ $57 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? SELL Yes 87¢ $23 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? SELL Yes 86¢ $40 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? BUY Yes 96¢ $70 4d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 9? BUY Yes 99¢ $67 6d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 7? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 7? SELL Yes 76¢ $33 8d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 7? BUY Yes 99¢ $43 8d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 7? BUY Yes 99¢ $6 8d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 96¢ $43 9d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL Yes 62¢ $25 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,092.19 · official $1,092.19 (match) · 108 history records