Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:33:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x11de…b10d politics 151 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$271 (-0%) realized −$271 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate15%23W / 127L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,777per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$570now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$31
14 days−$71
30 days−$283
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$122
other 38% −$258
sports 16% +$94
culture 2% −$7
world 2% −$7
economics 2% −$2
tech 1% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 15% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 59 -3.7% -12.9% 10% 5% -9.7%
≤90d 116 -10.0% -18.5% 10% 6% -10.0%
all 150 -2.2% -11.5% 15% 10% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 10% -9.6%
10% -20.0% 9% -18.3%
15% -27.7% 9% -26.2%
20% -34.8% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,356) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$12 · ×4.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$570
Realized−$271
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses23 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)150 / 151
History coverage123d
Avg bet$1,777
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $570 $570 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $1,083 +$2 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $3,874 −$4 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 17 $680 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $630 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,126 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,421 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $7,565 −$8 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $4,207 −$5 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $2,876 −$4 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $177 +$1 +0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,149 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $3,478 −$4 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $621 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $2,234 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,174 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,551 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $2,429 −$3 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,355 −$3 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 07 $684 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $77 +$37 +48%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $784 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $767 −$1 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 05 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $2,356 −$4 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $741 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $56 −$56 -100%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $2,717 −$4 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $940 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $871 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St Jun 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 02 $436 $0 +0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $3,385 −$4 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $4,662 −$5 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $7,089 −$8 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $2,661 −$3 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $7,516 −$8 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $2,586 −$3 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $4,243 −$4 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $3,531 −$5 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $5,661 −$6 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles May 26 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 25 $1,295 −$2 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 25 $50 +$69 +140%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $6,871 −$7 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $570 1h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $612 18h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $613 21h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $679 22h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $680 24h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $629 41h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $630 43h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $602 44h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $603 46h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $604 47h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $605 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $682 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $683 2d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $737 2d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $738 3d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $671 3d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $672 4d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $519 5d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $520 5d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $662 5d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $663 5d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $522 6d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $523 6d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $620 6d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $621 6d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $562 7d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $563 7d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $657 7d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $659 7d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $562 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $569.86 · official $569.86 (match) · 546 history records