Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:26:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
11 0x11df…6746 crypto 110 markets active 2d ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$329 (+14%) realized +$334 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate57%62W / 47L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$96
14 days+$241
30 days+$273
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$273
other 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +13.5% +2.7% 52% 48% +10.3%
≤30d 109 +11.8% +1.1% 57% 53% +1.3%
≤90d 109 +11.8% +1.1% 57% 53% +1.3%
all 109 +11.8% +1.1% 57% 53% +1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.1% 53% +1.3%
10% -8.6% 51% -8.4%
15% -17.4% 46% -17.3%
20% -25.5% 39% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$17 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$334
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses62 / 47
Open positions1
Markets (closed)109 / 110
History coverage13d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$11 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$37 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$39 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$40 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$56 +213%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$25 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$15 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$32 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$33 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 11 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $63 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $65 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $27 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $82 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 7d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $26 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.83 · official $19.83 (match) · 215 history records