Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:18:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x11e4…7371 crypto 210 markets active 1h ago coverage 579d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$81 (-21%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate53%109W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$23
other 26% −$39
politics 8% −$11
tech 7% −$8
sports 6% +$1
world 3% −$3
economics 1% −$1
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +15.9% +4.9% 25% 25% +5.3%
≤30d 103 -2.3% -11.6% 80% 23% -11.3%
≤90d 103 -2.3% -11.6% 80% 23% -11.3%
all 207 -19.5% -27.2% 53% 22% -29.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.2% 22% -29.7%
10% -34.2% 15% -36.5%
15% -40.5% 9% -42.6%
20% -46.4% 7% -48.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

579d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses109 / 98
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)207 / 210
History coverage579d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 207 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Allen Waters be the Republican nominee for Senate in Rhode Island Jun 16 $1 $0 -45%
Will Raymond McKay be the Republican nominee for Senate in Rhode Islan Jun 16 $1 $0 -18%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +226%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 31, 11PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +26%
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 11PM ET Jun 01 $2 +$1 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +14%
BNB Up or Down - June 1, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 -6%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +9%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 31, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +6%
BNB Up or Down - May 31, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -99%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +26%
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +9%
BNB Up or Down - May 31, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +18%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 11PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 11PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -99%
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +13%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 31, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +7%
BNB Up or Down - May 31, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -99%
HYPE Up or Down - May 31, 10PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - May 31, 10PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 10PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 10PM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 +4%
BNB Up or Down - May 31, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +16%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +5%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 31, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +5%
BNB Up or Down - May 31, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - May 31, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 31, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +5%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 31, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 31 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 3AM ET May 31 $1 $0 -1%
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 12AM ET May 31 $2 $0 +12%
BNB Up or Down - May 31, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 31 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Allen Waters be the Republican nominee for Senate in Rhode Island SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Raymond McKay be the Republican nominee for Senate in Rhode Islan SELL Yes 76¢ $1 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2d
Will Allen Waters be the Republican nominee for Senate in Rhode Island BUY Yes 1¢ $1 15d
Will Raymond McKay be the Republican nominee for Senate in Rhode Islan BUY Yes 91¢ $1 15d
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 31, 11PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $1 15d
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 11PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $3 15d
BNB Up or Down - June 1, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $2 15d
BNB Up or Down - June 1, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 15d
BNB Up or Down - June 1, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 15d
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 15d
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 15d
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 15d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 15d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 15d
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 15d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 31, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 15d
BNB Up or Down - May 31, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 15d
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 15d
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 15d
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 31, 11PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 15d
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 11PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 15d
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 11PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 15d
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 11PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 15d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 11PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.94 · official $2.94 (match) · 494 history records