Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:43:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x11e8…a362 sports 118 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$270 (-9%) realized −$270 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate45%53W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$19
14 days+$19
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$244
other 3% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +13.3% +2.5% 100% 67% +0.8%
≤30d 3 +13.3% +2.5% 100% 67% +0.8%
≤90d 118 -19.0% -26.7% 45% 33% -17.3%
all 118 -19.0% -26.7% 45% 33% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.7% 33% -17.3%
10% -33.7% 23% -25.3%
15% -40.1% 16% -32.5%
20% -46.0% 14% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$11 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$270
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses53 / 65
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions0
Markets (closed)118 / 118
History coverage66d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 118 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $115 +$13 +11%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $21 +$5 +25%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $32 +$1 +4%
Ostrava: Dalibor Svrcina vs Felix Gill Apr 28 $2 −$2 -87%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $23 −$17 -76%
Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club vs. Al Shabab Saudi Club: O/U 4.5 Apr 15 $7 −$2 -30%
Southampton FC vs. Blackburn Rovers FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Santa Cruz: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Gonzalo Bueno Apr 15 $82 −$6 -7%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Tallahassee: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri Apr 15 $41 −$11 -26%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Apr 15 $24 −$4 -18%
Santa Cruz: Guido Justo vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Apr 15 $3 +$2 +54%
Spread: O'Higgins FC (-1.5) Apr 14 $4 $0 +0%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Apr 14 $3 −$2 -73%
Oeiras 3: Henrique Rocha vs Tom Gentzsch Apr 14 $12 $0 -2%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $20 $0 -1%
Santa Cruz: Santiago De La Fuente vs Nicolas Villalon Apr 14 $111 −$22 -19%
Will Kahrabaa Ismailia FC vs. Ismaily SC end in a draw? Apr 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Misa Esports - Game 2 Winner Apr 14 $20 $0 +2%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Eva Lys vs Paula Badosa Apr 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Barcelona Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Apr 14 $43 −$3 -8%
Tallahassee: Stefan Kozlov vs Alex Rybakov Apr 14 $7 +$2 +26%
Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club vs. Al Shabab Saudi Club: O/U 3.5 Apr 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Tallahassee: Colton Smith vs Garrett Johns Apr 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 14 $7 −$4 -53%
Spread: Southampton FC (-1.5) Apr 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $9 −$2 -22%
Portsmouth FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 14 $10 $0 +2%
Southampton FC vs. Blackburn Rovers FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 14 $18 +$2 +11%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Hailey Baptiste vs Jessika Ponchet Apr 14 $53 +$34 +63%
Southampton FC vs. Blackburn Rovers FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Tallahassee: Daniil Glinka vs Stefan Dostanic Apr 14 $15 −$2 -15%
Oeiras 3: Guy Den Ouden vs Jaime Faria Apr 14 $29 +$10 +33%
Spread: Ipswich Town FC (-1.5) Apr 14 $2 $0 +0%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Alexandra Eala vs Leylah Fernandez Apr 14 $15 $0 +1%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Jaqueline Crist Apr 14 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-01-04? Apr 14 $11 +$8 +75%
LoL: Solary vs Misa Esports - Game 1 Winner Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Oeiras 3: Darja Semenistaja vs Leolia Jeanjean Apr 14 $78 −$46 -59%
Oeiras 3: Maja Chwalinska vs Kaitlin Quevedo Apr 14 $109 −$2 -2%
LoL: Solary vs Misa Esports - Game 3 Winner Apr 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Kahrabaa Ismailia FC vs. Ismaily SC: O/U 1.5 Apr 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Barcelona Open: Mariano Navone vs Andrey Rublev Apr 14 $55 −$30 -55%
Oeiras 3: Felix Gill vs Roman Safiullin Apr 14 $17 +$2 +13%
Oeiras 3: Katarzyna Kawa vs Simona Waltert Apr 14 $9 −$3 -35%
Tallahassee: Darwin Blanch vs Daniel Galan Apr 14 $33 +$36 +109%
Barcelona Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Otto Virtanen Apr 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $26 46m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 78¢ $21 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 86¢ $26 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 89¢ $26 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 89¢ $32 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $33 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 91¢ $32 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 92¢ $1 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 93¢ $32 1h
Ostrava: Dalibor Svrcina vs Felix Gill SELL Felix Gill $0 51d
Ostrava: Dalibor Svrcina vs Felix Gill BUY Felix Gill 30¢ $2 51d
Spread: O'Higgins FC (-1.5) SELL São Paulo FC 99¢ $4 65d
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-04-14? BUY No 52¢ $10 65d
Spread: O'Higgins FC (-1.5) BUY São Paulo FC 99¢ $4 65d
Santa Cruz: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Gonzalo Bueno SELL Gonzalo Bueno 67¢ $62 65d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 2 Winner SELL Vivo Keyd Stars $1 65d
Oeiras 3: Henrique Rocha vs Tom Gentzsch SELL Henrique Rocha 67¢ $7 65d
Oeiras 3: Henrique Rocha vs Tom Gentzsch SELL Tom Gentzsch 32¢ $6 65d
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-04-14? SELL Yes 85¢ $17 65d
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-04-14? SELL No 13¢ $3 65d
Santa Cruz: Santiago De La Fuente vs Nicolas Villalon SELL Nicolas Villalon 71¢ $28 65d
Santa Cruz: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Gonzalo Bueno SELL Gonzalo Bueno 81¢ $11 65d
Santa Cruz: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Gonzalo Bueno SELL Gonzalo Bueno 81¢ $4 65d
Santa Cruz: Santiago De La Fuente vs Nicolas Villalon SELL Santiago De La Fuente 29¢ $61 65d
Santa Cruz: Santiago De La Fuente vs Nicolas Villalon BUY Nicolas Villalon 64¢ $13 65d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY Vivo Keyd Stars 25¢ $3 65d
Santa Cruz: Santiago De La Fuente vs Nicolas Villalon BUY Nicolas Villalon 43¢ $9 65d
Santa Cruz: Santiago De La Fuente vs Nicolas Villalon BUY Santiago De La Fuente 35¢ $5 65d
Santa Cruz: Santiago De La Fuente vs Nicolas Villalon BUY Santiago De La Fuente 36¢ $5 65d
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-04-14? BUY No 28¢ $6 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 717 history records