Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:57:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x11eb…50cb sports 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$403 (-15%) realized −$403 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate90%9W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$272per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$311
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -5.3% -14.3% 90% 10% -19.9%
≤30d 10 -5.3% -14.3% 90% 10% -19.9%
≤90d 10 -5.3% -14.3% 90% 10% -19.9%
all 10 -5.3% -14.3% 90% 10% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 10% -19.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 0% -27.5%
15% -30.0% 0% -34.5%
20% -36.8% 0% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$435 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$403
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses9 / 1
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$272
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 24 $294 +$47 +16%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Clement Tabur Jun 24 $289 +$5 +2%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gauthier Onclin vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 24 $274 +$15 +5%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Alexis Galarneau vs Oliver Tarvet Jun 24 $272 +$2 +1%
Bad Homburg Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Clara Tauson Jun 24 $246 +$25 +10%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Panna Udvardy Jun 24 $240 +$7 +3%
Mallorca Championships: Murphy Cassone vs Ethan Quinn Jun 24 $228 +$11 +5%
Mallorca Championships: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse Jun 24 $226 +$2 +1%
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 24 $435 −$435 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Madison Keys Jun 24 $217 +$9 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 100¢ $342 19m
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 83¢ $1 34m
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 86¢ $1 35m
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 86¢ $219 35m
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 86¢ $73 35m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Clement Tabur SELL Clement Tabur 100¢ $294 37m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Clement Tabur BUY Clement Tabur 98¢ $289 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gauthier Onclin vs Shintaro Mochizuki SELL Shintaro Mochizuki 100¢ $288 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gauthier Onclin vs Shintaro Mochizuki BUY Shintaro Mochizuki 95¢ $274 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Alexis Galarneau vs Oliver Tarvet SELL Oliver Tarvet 100¢ $274 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Alexis Galarneau vs Oliver Tarvet BUY Oliver Tarvet 99¢ $224 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Alexis Galarneau vs Oliver Tarvet BUY Oliver Tarvet 99¢ $1 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Alexis Galarneau vs Oliver Tarvet BUY Oliver Tarvet 99¢ $47 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Clara Tauson SELL Clara Tauson 100¢ $270 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Clara Tauson BUY Clara Tauson 98¢ $24 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Clara Tauson BUY Clara Tauson 90¢ $13 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Clara Tauson BUY Clara Tauson 90¢ $4 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Clara Tauson BUY Clara Tauson 90¢ $204 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Panna Udvardy SELL Jelena Ostapenko 100¢ $247 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Panna Udvardy BUY Jelena Ostapenko 97¢ $240 2h
Mallorca Championships: Murphy Cassone vs Ethan Quinn SELL Ethan Quinn 100¢ $240 2h
Mallorca Championships: Murphy Cassone vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 95¢ $228 2h
Mallorca Championships: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse SELL Vit Kopriva 100¢ $228 3h
Mallorca Championships: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse BUY Vit Kopriva 99¢ $140 3h
Mallorca Championships: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse BUY Vit Kopriva 99¢ $86 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 96¢ $217 4h
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 67¢ $14 5h
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 63¢ $421 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 30 history records