Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:04:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
11 0x11eb…9934 weather 103 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$42 (+0%) realized +$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%99W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$284per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$837now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$5
14 days+$7
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 72% +$28
other 22% +$9
sports 6% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 44 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 100 +0.2% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 100 +0.2% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×108.79 per $1 lost it wins $108.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$837
Realized+$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses99 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)100 / 103
History coverage55d
Avg bet$284
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $410 $410 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $298 $298 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $129 $129 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $400 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $500 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $170 $0 +0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $88 $0 +0%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $950 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $294 +$1 +0%
Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1,036 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $210 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 4? Jun 04 $825 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $400 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $634 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 2? Jun 02 $164 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $867 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 1? Jun 01 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 1? Jun 01 $496 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 1? Jun 01 $199 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on June 1? Jun 01 $190 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $46 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on May 31? Jun 01 $1,029 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on May 30? May 31 $764 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C or higher on May 29? May 30 $200 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 29? May 30 $64 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on May 29? May 30 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 29? May 30 $129 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on May 29? May 30 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 29? May 30 $334 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 28? May 28 $164 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 28? May 28 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 28? May 28 $511 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on May 28? May 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on May 28? May 28 $123 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on May 27? May 27 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 27? May 27 $494 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 27? May 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on May 27? May 27 $200 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $722 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on May 25? May 25 $300 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $355 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $67 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 22? May 22 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on May 22? May 22 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on May 17? May 17 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or higher on May 16? May 16 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or higher on May 16? May 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 16? May 16 $198 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 16? May 16 $150 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $279 55m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $131 56m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $129 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $298 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $400 19h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $500 41h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $170 4d
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 100¢ $289 4d
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 100¢ $661 4d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 100¢ $57 4d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 4d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 4d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 5d
Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 5d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 5d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 5d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $1,036 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $825 14d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $150 14d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $60 14d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $634 15d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C or higher on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $400 15d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $867 15d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $164 16d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $199 17d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 1? BUY No 99¢ $99 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $836.91 · official $836.91 (match) · 245 history records