Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:53:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x11ee…e6c6 sports 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$282 (+22%) realized +$282 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate37%23W / 40L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$137
7 days+$245
14 days+$238
30 days+$231
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$309
crypto 16% −$3
world 4% −$57
other 1% −$10
weather 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -0.2% -9.7% 41% 41% +12.2%
≤30d 63 -16.0% -24.0% 37% 33% +7.4%
≤90d 63 -16.0% -24.0% 37% 33% +7.4%
all 63 -16.0% -24.0% 37% 33% +7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.0% 33% +7.4%
10% -31.3% 33% -2.9%
15% -37.9% 32% -12.2%
20% -44.0% 29% -20.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +19% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$10 · ×2.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$282
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses23 / 40
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage15d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane Terence Atmane 45¢ 45¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 22 $15 +$18 +118%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 21 $61 +$62 +101%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 21 $30 −$30 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $15 +$13 +86%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $16 −$16 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $10 +$11 +105%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $102 +$116 +114%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 20 $52 −$51 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Giles Hussey Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 20 $11 −$11 -98%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $31 +$38 +124%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo Jun 20 $17 +$8 +48%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Lanlana Tararudee vs Veronika Er Jun 20 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 20 $45 −$4 -9%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 19 $30 −$30 -98%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 19 $16 −$16 -99%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson Jun 19 $30 +$10 +32%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Jun 19 $22 +$11 +50%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $47 +$86 +184%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Jun 18 $48 +$36 +74%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 18 $20 −$1 -5%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $10 +$12 +119%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 18 $10 +$10 +102%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $20 +$21 +101%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 17 $20 −$1 -6%
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $20 −$3 -14%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $20 +$23 +114%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $10 +$12 +118%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $41 +$44 +107%
Dota 2: G-Time vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 16 $10 $0 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $20 +$28 +139%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 +$18 +172%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$49 +481%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $10 +$13 +129%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C SELL Grind Back 100¢ $33 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane BUY Terence Atmane 45¢ $15 2h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY Grind Back 45¢ $15 10h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 49¢ $61 19h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY India 49¢ $30 21h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 41¢ $1 23h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 50¢ $15 25h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 53¢ $15 31h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 48¢ $10 35h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 46¢ $102 42h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 18¢ $1 42h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 55¢ $51 42h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Giles Hussey BUY James Duckworth 48¢ $20 43h
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Otto Virtanen 11¢ $1 44h
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Otto Virtanen 47¢ $10 44h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 44¢ $31 45h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Lanlana Tararudee vs Veronika Er BUY Lanlana Tararudee 58¢ $15 2d
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports $1 2d
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 12¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo BUY FOKUS 59¢ $15 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo SELL TDK 94¢ $78 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY Team Nemesis $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY Team Nemesis $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY Team Nemesis 10¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY TDK 48¢ $41 2d
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 48¢ $20 2d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 44¢ $10 2d
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 48¢ $30 2d
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic BUY Ann Li 39¢ $1 2d
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic BUY Ann Li 53¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.00 · official $15.00 (match) · 141 history records