Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:56:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x11f3…d859 other 330 markets active 4h ago coverage 275d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 275d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$16,541 (+3%) realized +$18,241 · open −$1,700
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate73%227W / 82L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$1,583per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$19,749now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$175
7 days−$192
14 days−$577
30 days+$621
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% +$5,394
other 31% +$6,486
world 26% +$701
economics 4% +$783
culture 3% +$560
crypto 2% +$124
tech 1% +$218
sports 1% −$299
weather 0% +$72
finance 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -14.7% -22.8% 71% 29% -10.5%
≤30d 28 -5.4% -14.4% 75% 29% -8.4%
≤90d 81 -0.7% -10.1% 72% 26% -8.0%
all 309 +11.3% +0.7% 73% 23% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.7% 23% -6.7%
10% ← realistic here -8.9% 12% -15.6%
15% -17.7% 9% -23.8%
20% -25.8% 7% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$1,865) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +27% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$133 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.58 per $1 lost it wins $2.58
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

275d coverage
Net worth$19,749
Realized+$18,241
Unrealized−$1,700
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses227 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions21
Markets (closed)309 / 330
History coverage275d ⚠
Avg bet$1,583
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 309 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $4,338 $4,433 +$95 (+2%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 95¢ 100¢ $2,005 $2,093 +$88 (+4%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? No 97¢ 97¢ $2,092 $2,092 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? No 97¢ 96¢ $2,089 $2,051 −$38 (-2%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 91¢ 99¢ $1,827 $1,987 +$160 (+9%)
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? No 87¢ 91¢ $1,870 $1,949 +$80 (+4%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 85¢ 91¢ $1,800 $1,916 +$116 (+6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 59¢ 62¢ $880 $938 +$58 (+7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 74¢ 78¢ $738 $785 +$47 (+6%)
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? No 64¢ 71¢ $682 $754 +$72 (+11%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 81¢ 86¢ $405 $432 +$27 (+7%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $104 $94 −$10 (-9%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? No 51¢ 56¢ $51 $56 +$5 (+9%)
Brex IPO before 2027? No 81¢ 98¢ $40 $49 +$9 (+22%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 13¢ 9¢ $65 $45 −$20 (-30%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Will Cristopher Sánchez strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season? No 91¢ 78¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-14%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $2,392 $14 −$2,378 (-99%)
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-41%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 46¢ 16¢ $9 $3 −$6 (-64%)
Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027? No 33¢ 94¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+186%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $4,774 +$175 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 15 $4,621 +$147 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $2,656 −$579 -22%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 14 $2,919 +$68 +2%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $63 −$35 -56%
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $99 +$32 +33%
SpaceX IPO: Trading Halted for Volatility? Jun 13 $13 +$1 +11%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $8,208 +$42 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by June 30, 2 Jun 04 $34 +$16 +47%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1,111 −$444 -40%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 03 $2,769 −$719 -26%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Megyn Kelly by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $207 +$16 +8%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $1,255 +$172 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,503 +$227 +15%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $563 +$147 +26%
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by May 31? Jun 01 $4,284 +$74 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $704 +$96 +14%
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by May 31? Jun 01 $475 +$4 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? May 31 $519 +$25 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 31 $1,776 +$67 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 30 $5,213 +$668 +13%
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31? May 29 $7,059 +$270 +4%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $1,727 +$79 +5%
Trump re-sues WSJ by May 31? May 25 $18 −$17 -99%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $474 −$45 -10%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 23 $1,277 +$38 +3%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? May 22 $4,070 +$108 +3%
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? May 21 $33 −$12 -35%
Will Trump insult MBS by May 15? May 16 $1,054 +$29 +3%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 14 $1,168 +$42 +4%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $75,000 $0 +0%
Will David Portnoy give another 9+ pizza review by April 30? May 01 $129 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? May 01 $4,265 +$85 +2%
Joe Kent charged by April 30? May 01 $1,953 +$28 +1%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? May 01 $12,830 +$103 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap Apr 30 $4,568 +$132 +3%
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? Apr 30 $352 −$185 -53%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by April 30? Apr 30 $229 −$183 -80%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 29 $445 +$53 +12%
Trump posts himself as Jesus again in April? Apr 29 $2,132 +$59 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 29 $598 +$233 +39%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Apr 29 $4,069 +$468 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? Apr 25 $6,929 +$97 +1%
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2026? Apr 24 $25 +$5 +20%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Apr 24 $354 +$29 +8%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? Apr 23 $1,247 +$134 +11%
Weed rescheduled by June 30? Apr 23 $164 +$4 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $4,412 +$76 +2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? Apr 18 $115 +$113 +98%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 17 $1,703 +$33 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $51 3h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? BUY No 97¢ $2,087 3h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1,137 5h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $993 34h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $5 36h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,036 39h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $511 39h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $8 39h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 39h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $12 39h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $820 39h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 41h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $18 42h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $979 45h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $16 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $500 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $731 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,292 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $496 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $110 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $717 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $140 2d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 86¢ $430 2d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $33 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $3,215 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 0¢ $15 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 74¢ $148 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 48¢ $240 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 11¢ $55 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $486 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19,748.92 · official $19,746.71 (match) · 3500 history records