Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:33:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x11f4…4f93 other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$159 (-16%) realized −$158 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%8W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days+$45
14 days−$140
30 days−$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$74
sports 14% −$4
crypto 4% −$45
tech 3% −$25
weather 2% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-55.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +5.1% -4.9% 75% 75% +28.5%
≤30d 29 -51.3% -55.9% 28% 28% -27.7%
≤90d 29 -51.3% -55.9% 28% 28% -27.7%
all 29 -51.3% -55.9% 28% 28% -27.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.9% 28% -27.7%
10% -60.1% 24% -34.7%
15% -64.0% 21% -41.0%
20% -67.5% 17% -46.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -62% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$21 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$206
Realized−$158
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses8 / 21
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage16d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $187 $186 −$1 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $25 +$14 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $61 +$30 +50%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $81 +$46 +57%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $71 +$76 +106%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $71 −$70 -99%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$53 +172%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $31 −$30 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $58 +$48 +83%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $20 −$12 -60%
Modena: Xinyu Gao vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $15 +$5 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $40 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $148 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 23h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $61 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 9d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $40 9d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $3 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $25 9d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $30 9d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 9d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 9d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $10 10d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 10d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $61 11d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 11d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 11d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 11d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $10 11d
Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I BUY Yes 11¢ $5 12d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 68¢ $10 12d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 12d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 12d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 12d
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 12d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 12d
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I BUY Yes 28¢ $10 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $206.04 · official $206.04 (match) · 50 history records