Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:48:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x11f5…ea34 sports 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$423 (-21%) realized −$407 · open −$16
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%22W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$283
7 days−$222
14 days−$294
30 days−$446
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$564
other 11% +$84
world 1% +$9
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +4.0% -5.9% 41% 41% -27.8%
≤30d 53 -0.9% -10.3% 42% 42% -31.7%
≤90d 54 -2.7% -12.0% 41% 41% -32.2%
all 54 -2.7% -12.0% 41% 41% -32.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 41% -32.2%
10% -20.4% 39% -38.7%
15% -28.1% 37% -44.6%
20% -35.2% 33% -50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$33 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$407
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses22 / 32
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions3
Markets (closed)54 / 59
History coverage30d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 27¢ 12¢ $20 $9 −$11 (-54%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes $5 $2 −$3 (-57%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Yes 10¢ $4 $1 −$2 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $43 −$42 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $136 +$56 +42%
Gavi Paez: 1+ shots Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $55 −$54 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $30 +$22 +73%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $30 +$36 +119%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 14 $9 +$28 +307%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $30 +$33 +109%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $31 +$58 +188%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $30 +$31 +101%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $23 −$23 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $19 +$18 +93%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $8 +$20 +250%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 +$33 +109%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $28 +$4 +14%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 +$56 +550%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 12 $20 +$22 +106%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $25 +$19 +74%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $27 −$27 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $41 −$40 -98%
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $39 −$39 -99%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -96%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $31 −$30 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners May 30 $20 +$13 +62%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $71 −$2 -2%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 28 $5 +$4 +79%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 27 $42 −$42 -99%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 8.5 Total Corners May 27 $30 −$30 -99%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 26 $5 +$20 +400%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $78 +$31 +40%
Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 0.5 May 23 $59 +$19 +32%
Erling Haaland: Anytime Goalscorer May 20 $15 +$13 +83%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score May 20 $24 +$17 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 AND IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY 47¢ $102 33m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $43 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $192 1h
Gavi Paez: 1+ shots SELL Yes $0 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $136 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 48¢ $51 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 60¢ $30 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $20 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 35¢ $41 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $101 4h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 49¢ $51 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $30 5h
Gavi Paez: 1+ shots BUY Yes 75¢ $30 6h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $41 6h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $55 6h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $31 24h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 57¢ $30 24h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 24¢ $9 24h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $30 24h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 21¢ $9 26h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $31 26h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 30¢ $12 26h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $64 26h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $31 28h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $30 28h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $23 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $30 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 48¢ $15 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $37 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $19 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.79 · official $162.79 · 88 history records