trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 4¢ | 3¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-7%) |
| Will Tottenham finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $6 | $0 | −$6 (-100%) |
| Tour de France 2025: Will Jonas Vingegaard wear the yellow jersey? | Yes | 19¢ | 0¢ | $15 | $0 | −$15 (-100%) |
| Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-100%) |
| Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-20? | Yes | 33¢ | 0¢ | $12 | $0 | −$12 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t | May 07 | $3 | −$3 | -96% |
| Will Tottenham Hotspur win on 2025-09-16? | May 07 | $3 | +$2 | +85% |
| Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-20? | Sep 20 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Sep 20 | $26 | −$14 | -53% |
| Will Tottenham finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier Leag | Sep 04 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025? | Jul 13 | $15 | +$1 | +10% |
| Tour de France 2025: Will Jonas Vingegaard wear the yellow jersey? | Jul 11 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? | Jul 01 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Tottenham Hotspur win the UEFA Europa League? | May 22 | $9 | +$44 | +488% |
| Will Biden finish his term? | Feb 20 | $5 | $0 | +8% |
| Will Frank Lampard join Coventry? | Nov 28 | $1 | $0 | -6% |
| Will Spurs win on 2024-11-10? | Nov 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Real Sociedad win the UEFA Europa League? | Nov 07 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| Trump wins every swing state? | Nov 07 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27? | Oct 29 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 2 | -7.4% | -16.2% | 50% | 50% | -14.6% |
| all | 15 | -17.8% | -25.7% | 27% | 13% | -45.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -25.7% | 13% | -45.4% |
| 10% | -32.8% | 13% | -50.7% |
| 15% | -39.3% | 13% | -55.4% |
| 20% | -45.2% | 13% | -59.8% |