Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:57:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x11fa…6183 world 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate42%15W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% −$4
other 12% +$1
sports 7% −$4
politics 6% $0
weather 3% −$1
economics 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -3.7% -12.9% 50% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 12 -1.5% -10.8% 17% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 12 -1.5% -10.8% 17% 0% -10.1%
all 36 -1.7% -11.0% 42% 3% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 3% -10.5%
10% -19.6% 0% -19.0%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.9%
20% -34.5% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses15 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage474d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $16 −$2 -12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $19 −$1 -4%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $80 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $39 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $43 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $87 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $43 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $11 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $43 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $86 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $40 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $44 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jul 23 $9 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +4%
Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Apr 24 $5 −$1 -29%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 14 $1 $0 +16%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 05 $15 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Apr 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Apr 02 $15 $0 +1%
Will the AFD be part of the next German government? Mar 31 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? Mar 30 $14 +$1 +7%
Will the U.S. military implement transgender ban? Mar 24 $14 $0 -1%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Mar 23 $12 $0 +1%
Will Ontario resume electricity surcharge to the U.S. by next Friday? Mar 23 $14 $0 +1%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Mar 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 7-14? Mar 13 $13 +$1 +4%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.30-1.34ºC in February 20 Mar 12 $13 $0 +2%
Islanders vs. Rangers Mar 03 $9 −$2 -28%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on March 4? Mar 03 $9 −$2 -17%
Delaware State vs. Morgan State Mar 03 $17 $0 +0%
Wichita State vs. North Texas Mar 03 $19 −$2 -11%
UMass Lowell vs. Maine Mar 03 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $7 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $29 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 10¢ $4 5h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 10¢ $0 5h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 10¢ $5 5h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 11¢ $3 7h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 11¢ $4 7h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 11¢ $2 7h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 16¢ $4 10h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 16¢ $2 10h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $7 13h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $15 23h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 23h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $19 25h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $41 28h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $41 29h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $26 36h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $13 36h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $39 39h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $3 44h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $36 44h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $9 47h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $29 47h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $43 15d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $43 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $42 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $42 17d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $43 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.59 · official $36.57 (match) · 120 history records