Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:17:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x11fb…3557 politics 109 markets active 4h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$563 (+0%) realized +$566 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate14%15W / 93L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,183per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$894now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$8
14 days−$20
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% −$83
other 28% −$513
sports 13% +$1,159
culture 2% −$3
crypto 1% −$1
world 1% −$13
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 24 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 77 -20.0% -27.6% 9% 5% -9.6%
all 108 -8.0% -16.8% 14% 9% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 9% -9.1%
10% -24.7% 9% -17.8%
15% -32.0% 6% -25.8%
20% -38.7% 6% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,711) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -17% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$129 vs −$15 · ×8.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$894
Realized+$566
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses15 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)108 / 109
History coverage125d
Avg bet$1,183
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $897 $894 −$3 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $1,440 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $347 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $212 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $212 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $1,616 −$3 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,684 −$3 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,240 −$3 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $2,606 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,643 −$3 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,677 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $5,304 −$5 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $1,590 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $2,439 −$3 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,586 −$3 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $1,571 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 04 $156 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 04 $784 +$1 +0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $973 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $1,095 −$3 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $2,184 −$3 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $2,418 −$3 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $1,372 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $4,306 −$5 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,537 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,152 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $1,551 −$2 -0%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 21 $877 +$1,116 +127%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $2,925 −$4 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $817 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $818 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $3,233 −$3 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $2,483 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $1,716 −$2 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $2,174 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $1,711 −$2 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,745 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $782 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $625 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $3,834 −$4 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 02 $60 $0 +0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $2,928 −$3 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $716 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $840 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $2,820 −$3 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $3,208 −$3 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $871 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $972 −$1 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $938 −$1 -0%
Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakers Mar 27 $89 +$28 +31%
Wizards vs. Jazz Mar 26 $59 −$59 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $273 3h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $273 5h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $346 8h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $347 9h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $211 32h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $212 33h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $211 2d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $212 2d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $897 4d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,613 5d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,616 6d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,681 6d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,684 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $2,237 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $587 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,654 7d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,667 8d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,669 8d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,641 8d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,643 8d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,674 13d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,677 13d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,646 14d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,649 14d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,587 15d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,590 15d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,602 15d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,605 15d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,584 15d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,586 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $894.13 · official $894.14 (match) · 372 history records