Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:41:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x11fc…8262 weather 472 markets active 2h ago coverage 31d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (100 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,221 (-19%) realized −$4,200 · open −$21
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%149W / 250L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day100.0pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$369now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 31d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 89% −$1,107
sports 6% +$167
other 3% +$65
crypto 1% −$54
tech 1% −$114
world 0% −$15
politics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (100 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 127 -16.0% -24.0% 38% 35% -13.7%
≤30d 398 -13.0% -21.3% 37% 34% -14.1%
≤90d 399 -12.3% -20.6% 37% 34% -14.1%
all 399 -12.3% -20.6% 37% 34% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover100.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.6% 34% -14.1%
10% ← realistic here -28.2% 30% -22.3%
15% -35.2% 27% -29.8%
20% -41.5% 23% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$26 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$369
Realized−$4,200
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses149 / 250
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions68
Markets (closed)399 / 472
History coverage31d ⚠
Avg bet$47
Trades / day100.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 68 History 399 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 48¢ $24 $24 +$1 (+3%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 42¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 52¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 54¢ 12¢ $28 $6 −$21 (-77%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 60¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 56¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Over 70¢ 72¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Over 72¢ 74¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Over 27¢ 28¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Over 67¢ 68¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 Over 66¢ 66¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Over 78¢ 78¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 Over 40¢ 40¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Over 58¢ 58¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 Over 33¢ 33¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Yes 32¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+212%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Over 62¢ 62¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Yes 52¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$8 +152%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$1 +29%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$6 +59%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 −$8 -52%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$8 +165%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 $0 -8%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 $0 -8%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 $0 -8%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 $0 -10%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 $0 -4%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $24 −$2 -9%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$30 +146%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $166 +$8 +5%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $24 +$26 +109%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $32 +$28 +88%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $22 +$30 +134%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $105 −$102 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $35 +$25 +72%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $95 −$20 -21%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $121 −$100 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $56 −$43 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $355 +$169 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $35 +$26 +72%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $10 +$12 +122%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $40 +$4 +11%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $28 +$22 +80%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $92 −$92 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $69 −$69 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $5 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 40¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? SELL Yes $0 3h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $3 6h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $20 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 47¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 6h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $0 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 13h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 26¢ $7 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 SELL Over 69¢ $6 13h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 52¢ $15 13h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 16h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $5 16h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $5 16h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $5 16h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $5 16h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 16h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $5 16h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $5 16h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $5 16h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 16h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 32¢ $5 16h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 16h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $5 16h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $5 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $369.33 · official $370.16 (match) · 3500 history records