Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:00:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
11 0x11fd…0338 other 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+2%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate77%60W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$31
14 days−$13
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$49
other 47% −$41
world 1% +$1
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -1.3% -10.7% 78% 39% -18.3%
≤30d 63 +0.8% -8.8% 81% 43% -8.3%
≤90d 78 +3.4% -6.4% 77% 44% -8.0%
all 78 +3.4% -6.4% 77% 44% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 44% -8.0%
10% -15.4% 24% -16.8%
15% -23.5% 21% -24.9%
20% -31.0% 15% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses60 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)78 / 78
History coverage46d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 78 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 20 $25 $0 +1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +12%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $15 $0 +2%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$1 +20%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 19 $16 +$1 +5%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$1 +21%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $16 $0 +3%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 18 $12 $0 +1%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $7 $0 +6%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $6 +$1 +10%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 18 $7 $0 +3%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $3 +$1 +40%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $7 +$1 +10%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +20%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $13 +$4 +29%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $6 $0 +2%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +13%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $27 −$18 -68%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $9 +$9 +97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +250%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -87%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$8 +55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $10 +$1 +6%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $31 +$13 +43%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Dalma Galfi vs Mayar Sherif Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $20 +$1 +5%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $6 +$2 +32%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $8 +$2 +21%
Will India win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $7 +$2 +29%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $3 −$2 -71%
Will Cambodia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 99¢ $25 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 98¢ $15 2h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $5 21h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 21h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 97¢ $6 24h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 94¢ $10 25h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 99¢ $5 26h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 82¢ $5 26h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 97¢ $16 26h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 94¢ $7 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Chicago Cubs 100¢ $7 2d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 99¢ $12 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 97¢ $7 2d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 71¢ $3 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $7 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $6 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $5 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $6 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $4 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $3 3d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 98¢ $6 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $5 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 94¢ $5 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $5 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $9 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $12 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 164 history records