Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:13:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x11fe…603d other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$78 (-4%) realized +$1 · open −$79
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%3W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$910now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$45
14 days−$45
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$119
crypto 5% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -19.2% -26.9% 12% 12% -16.2%
≤30d 26 -19.2% -26.9% 12% 12% -16.2%
≤90d 26 -19.2% -26.9% 12% 12% -16.2%
all 26 -19.2% -26.9% 12% 12% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.9% 12% -16.2%
10% ← realistic here -33.9% 8% -24.3%
15% -40.3% 4% -31.6%
20% -46.1% 4% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$910
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$79
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses3 / 23
Open positions10
Markets (closed)26 / 36
History coverage7d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $301 $299 −$2 (-1%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $317 $286 −$31 (-10%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $101 $115 +$14 (+14%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $98 $103 +$5 (+5%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $62 $51 −$11 (-18%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $66 $37 −$30 (-45%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $14 $6 −$8 (-59%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $13 $3 −$10 (-75%)
Will Desire Doue be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $2 −$4 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 $0 -20%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $124 $0 -0%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $133 −$4 -3%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -13%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 $0 -5%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $71 −$2 -3%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -15%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $55 −$9 -16%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $28 +$4 +13%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $36 −$6 -16%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $11 +$3 +23%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Rafael Leão record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA W Jun 13 $1 $0 -40%
Will Luis Díaz record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 13 $1 $0 -18%
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 -11%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $22 −$1 -6%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $9 −$2 -22%
Will Viktor Gyökeres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -22%
Will Dani Olmo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 -22%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -33%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $42 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $14 −$2 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 56m
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 8h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 8h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 9h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $204 9h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $124 9h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 12h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $77 12h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 16h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $32 16h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 16h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 16h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 16h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $124 18h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 18h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $50 18h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $50 18h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 32h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes $4 32h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 33h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 33h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 33h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes $4 33h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 33h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 34h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 34h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 34h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $6 34h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $69 35h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $36 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $909.61 · official $909.61 (match) · 161 history records