Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:13:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
11 0x11ff…894d politics 90 markets active 2h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$58 (-0%) realized −$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate13%12W / 78L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$9
politics 38% −$8
sports 9% −$39
crypto 4% −$1
economics 3% −$1
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 83 -0.7% -10.1% 11% 6% -9.8%
all 90 -1.2% -10.6% 13% 8% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 8% -9.8%
10% -19.2% 8% -18.4%
15% -27.0% 6% -26.3%
20% -34.2% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$2 · ×3.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses12 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)90 / 90
History coverage113d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 90 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $27 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $117 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? May 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $198 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $198 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $250 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $251 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $431 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April? Apr 22 $226 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $249 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $257 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $228 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $228 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $830 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $203 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $193 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $411 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $255 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $699 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $178 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $200 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $254 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $174 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $243 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Apr 12 $262 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 11 $239 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $185 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $214 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $261 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 08 $231 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 07 $190 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 07 $249 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 07 $208 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $665 −$1 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 06 $209 $0 +0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $367 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $228 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 05 $264 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 05 $229 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 04 $260 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 04 $205 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 04 $249 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 03 $218 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $196 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $201 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 02 $186 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $266 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 01 $437 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $529 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $27 11d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $117 29d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $117 31d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? BUY No 100¢ $29 51d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $198 52d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $198 53d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 53d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $198 53d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $250 53d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $250 53d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $245 53d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $245 53d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $251 54d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $251 55d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $187 58d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $187 58d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $226 58d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $226 58d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $249 58d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $249 58d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $257 59d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $257 59d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 59d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $228 59d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 60d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $228 60d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $255 60d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $255 60d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $203 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 236 history records