Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:04:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
12 0x1201…a74d sports 229 markets active 0h ago coverage 596d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,089 (+7%) realized +$1,090 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%99W / 117L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$98
14 days+$834
30 days+$609
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$1,147
other 17% −$256
politics 10% +$136
world 2% −$34
crypto 0% +$51
economics 0% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +10.4% -0.2% 22% 22% -22.1%
≤30d 85 +6.7% -3.5% 34% 33% +10.2%
≤90d 137 +2.4% -7.3% 39% 38% +0.2%
all 216 +3.2% -6.6% 46% 44% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 44% -3.0%
10% -15.5% 42% -12.2%
15% -23.7% 37% -20.7%
20% -31.2% 34% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$45 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

596d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$1,090
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses99 / 117
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions5
Markets (closed)216 / 229
History coverage596d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 216 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 Over 43¢ 41¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-5%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Ghana? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 98 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $36 −$1 -4%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $25 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $8 +$31 +383%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $24 −$24 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -98%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $71 +$22 +31%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $101 +$31 +31%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $13 −$4 -27%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 21 $6 +$41 +714%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $6 −$5 -76%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $15 +$10 +67%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $17 +$79 +463%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -97%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 19 $20 +$21 +101%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $52 +$14 +27%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$2 -43%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $7 +$2 +33%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -21%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 −$27 -76%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $5 +$5 +115%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $71 −$2 -3%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $29 −$21 -72%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $35 −$2 -5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $61 +$25 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND England BUY 16¢ $7 11m
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Ghana? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 58m
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 59m
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 59m
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Over 43¢ $23 1h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 40¢ $34 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 1h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $36 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 32¢ $10 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 41¢ $25 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 3h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 32¢ $12 19h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 32¢ $12 19h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 21h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 22h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 26¢ $2 22h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 22h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 22h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 26h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 76¢ $71 27h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 42h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $101 43h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will BUY 15¢ $5 43h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 46¢ $7 44h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 44h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 51¢ $26 44h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 44h
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? SELL Yes 84¢ $47 45h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.46 · official $37.36 · 425 history records