Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:55:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x1201…09ac other 6 markets active 3h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$978 (-28%) realized +$530 · open −$1,508
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$578per market
Trades / day28.1pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$898now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$2,478
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
7.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$243 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$898
Realized+$530
Unrealized−$1,508
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage2d
Avg bet$578
Trades / day28.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2,000 $500 −$1,500 (-75%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $405 $398 −$8 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $216 −$210 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $227 −$221 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $277 −$270 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $276 −$270 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2,060 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 27¢ $414 6h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 39h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 4¢ $46 39h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 39h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 39h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 39h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 39h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 39h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 39h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 39h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 39h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 39h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 39h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 39h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 39h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 39h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 39h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 39h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 39h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 39h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 18¢ $277 39h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $276 39h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 40h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 40h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 40h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 40h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 40h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 40h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $897.50 · official $897.50 (match) · 44 history records