Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:37:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
12 0x1206…8aaf crypto 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$22 (-10%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate43%10W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$35
14 days−$31
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% +$1
other 31% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -51.5% -56.1% 25% 25% -54.9%
≤30d 23 +38.2% +25.1% 43% 35% -26.7%
≤90d 23 +38.2% +25.1% 43% 35% -26.7%
all 23 +38.2% +25.1% 43% 35% -26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.1% 35% -26.7%
10% +13.1% 30% -33.7%
15% +2.2% 30% -40.1%
20% -7.9% 22% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +116% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses10 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage8d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $18 +$8 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$5 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 10 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 10 $26 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 10 $16 −$10 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 10 $12 +$12 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 10 $15 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 10 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $8 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 32m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $15 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $25 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $18 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $11 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $12 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $11 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.93 · official $7.93 (match) · 73 history records