Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:39:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
12 0x120a…8985 crypto 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$48 (-2%) realized −$46 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate65%11W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$185now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$158
7 days−$407
14 days−$156
30 days−$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% +$18
sports 11% +$45
world 8% −$224
other 6% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -7.3% -16.2% 60% 60% -28.5%
≤30d 17 +2.2% -7.5% 65% 59% -14.5%
≤90d 17 +2.2% -7.5% 65% 59% -14.5%
all 17 +2.2% -7.5% 65% 59% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 59% -14.5%
10% -16.4% 41% -22.6%
15% -24.5% 35% -30.1%
20% -31.9% 24% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$134 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$185
Realized−$46
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses11 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)17 / 20
History coverage16d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? No 74¢ 74¢ $81 $81 −$1 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? No 85¢ 84¢ $61 $60 −$1 (-2%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? No 80¢ 80¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $110 +$19 +18%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $74 +$29 +39%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $98 +$18 +18%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $224 −$224 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $74 −$72 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $70 +$110 +156%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $75 +$40 +54%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 15 $495 −$367 -74%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $666 +$94 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 13 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $153 +$81 +53%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $153 +$215 +140%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $111 +$43 +39%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 08 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 08 $50 −$28 -56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $57 +$4 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $45 +$12 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 99¢ $129 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $46 11h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $61 11h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $82 11h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $110 11h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $74 24h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $98 24h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $224 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL No 1¢ $1 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY No 32¢ $74 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 37¢ $70 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 63¢ $75 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY No 34¢ $87 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY No 55¢ $93 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY No 73¢ $189 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? SELL No 75¢ $128 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY No 70¢ $126 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? SELL No 58¢ $267 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 54¢ $264 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? SELL No 85¢ $305 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 58¢ $218 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? SELL No 81¢ $187 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $235 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? BUY No 63¢ $153 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 67¢ $162 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? BUY No 14¢ $53 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? SELL No 63¢ $369 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? BUY No 15¢ $74 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? BUY No 55¢ $80 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185.26 · official $185.26 (match) · 49 history records