Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:37:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
12 0x120b…f86e other 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$91 (+20%) realized +$107 · open −$16
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%11W / 13L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$23
sports 25% +$25
crypto 7% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +9.5% -0.9% 46% 42% +4.1%
≤30d 24 +9.5% -0.9% 46% 42% +4.1%
≤90d 24 +9.5% -0.9% 46% 42% +4.1%
all 24 +9.5% -0.9% 46% 42% +4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.9% 42% +4.1%
10% -10.4% 33% -5.8%
15% -19.1% 29% -14.9%
20% -27.0% 29% -23.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late +54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$7 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$107
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses11 / 13
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 27
History coverage4d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+10%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Yes 35¢ 12¢ $28 $9 −$19 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $49 +$5 +10%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $49 +$10 +21%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$14 +67%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $4 −$2 -59%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $25 +$43 +170%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$7 +649%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $65 +$19 +30%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$11 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$23 +223%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +62%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 35¢ $28 0m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 14m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $54 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $49 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY 46¢ $36 2h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $25 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $49 9h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 24h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 25h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 25h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 26h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $69 27h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 28h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 28h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 48¢ $10 28h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 28h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 28h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $25 33h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $19 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 67¢ $20 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.70 · official $36.44 (match) · 56 history records