Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:26:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x120e…ba1f other 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 274d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate39%13W / 20L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$3
world 21% +$3
crypto 5% $0
politics 3% −$1
economics 3% $0
sports 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 5 +4.9% -5.1% 60% 20% -7.3%
≤90d 9 +12.4% +1.7% 67% 22% -8.1%
all 33 +4.7% -5.2% 39% 15% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 15% -8.8%
10% -14.3% 12% -17.5%
15% -22.6% 3% -25.5%
20% -30.2% 3% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.9 per $1 lost it wins $2.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses13 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage274d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $41 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $37 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $12 +$3 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $17 $0 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $32 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 24 $11 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 14 $8 $0 -1%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $20 +$4 +23%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $41 $0 -0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $45 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $13 −$1 -10%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $5 $0 +0%
Hawks vs. Pelicans Nov 24 $7 +$2 +24%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 23 $8 +$1 +18%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $95 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 21 $79 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 20 $19 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $54 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $39 $0 -0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 18 $28 −$2 -9%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? Sep 23 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $34 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $7 3h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $31 3h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $38 5h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $8 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 16h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $10 21h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $5 21h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $9 24h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $6 24h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 30h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 31h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 97¢ $38 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $37 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 42¢ $15 29d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 34¢ $12 29d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $6 29d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $8 29d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $14 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 38¢ $17 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $4 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $13 30d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $34 30d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $34 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $12 31d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $20 31d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $32 31d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $26 31d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $6 31d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $31 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.29 · official $34.29 (match) · 299 history records