Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:58:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
12 0x1211…e78e politics 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 630d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$487 (-34%) realized −$476 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$182now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$86
14 days+$308
30 days+$308
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 69% −$801
world 17% +$217
other 14% +$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +53.3% +38.7% 100% 100% +30.5%
≤30d 3 +72.5% +56.1% 100% 100% +61.1%
≤90d 3 +72.5% +56.1% 100% 100% +61.1%
all 4 +29.4% +17.1% 75% 75% -46.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.1% 75% -46.6%
10% +5.9% 75% -51.7%
15% -4.4% 50% -56.4%
20% -13.7% 50% -60.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +78% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$796 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

630d coverage
Net worth$182
Realized−$476
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)4 / 10
History coverage630d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? Yes 71¢ 68¢ $75 $72 −$3 (-4%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-7%)
Italy Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31? Yes 42¢ 36¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-14%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 27 $144 +$49 +34%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $51 +$37 +72%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $200 +$222 +111%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 19 $861 −$796 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $181.90 · official $181.90 (match) · 23 history records