Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:01:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
12 0x1213…21e4 politics 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 183d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$88 (-0%) realized −$88 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%2W / 16L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,182per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 58% −$15
economics 32% −$36
other 5% −$40
sports 4% +$3
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 -26.2% -33.3% 0% 0% -33.3%
all 18 -4.3% -13.4% 11% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 0% -9.9%
10% -21.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -29.3% 0% -26.4%
20% -36.2% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$1,014) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$88
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses2 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage183d
Avg bet$1,182
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 06 $147 −$39 -26%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 25 $968 −$1 -0%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Feb 14 $75 −$37 -50%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Feb 12 $1,006 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 10 $1,007 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 08 $1,008 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 06 $1,009 −$1 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 04 $1,006 +$3 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 02 $1,006 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 31 $1,007 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 29 $1,008 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 27 $1,009 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 25 $1,010 −$1 -0%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Jan 23 $1,014 −$4 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 21 $1,015 −$1 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 19 $7,103 +$1 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 17 $1,015 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 14 $1,016 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 1¢ $19 49d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $60 57d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $21 100d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 100d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 100d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 100d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 100d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 100d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 100d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 100d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 100d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 100d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 100d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 100d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 100d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 100d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 100d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 100d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 100d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 100d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 100d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 100d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 100d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $21 100d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $30 103d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 103d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 103d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 103d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.47 · official $32.47 (match) · 110 history records